人口负增长时代学前教育高质量发展的组态路径OACHSSCD

Against the backdrop of negative population growth,structural shifts in the supply and demand of preschool education are driving its developmental logic to transition from scale expansion to quality enhancement,with the exploration of differentiated pathways serving as a critical enabler for this transformation.Grounded in educational ecology theory,this study constructs a three-dimensional configuration model("macro-meso-micro")and employs data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions(excluding Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions)as analytical samples.By integrating Necessary Condition Analysis(NCA)and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA),this study typical pathways for high-quality preschool education development.Findings reveal that quality improvement exhibits significant cross-level synergy,where micro-,meso-,and macro-level factors interact non-linearly to form a composite driving network.Four distinct pathways emerge based on varying combinations of elements:population-driven,dual-core funding-driven,all-factor synergistic,and institutional rigidity-based guarantee models.Accordingly,policymakers should tailor strategies to regional contexts,leveraging localized advantages and resource endowments to formulate adaptive frameworks for preschool education quality advancement.