气候变化背景下,华东地区苗木企业聚集区预测研究

[Objective]Predict the distribution of seedling enterprise agglomerations in East China under the background of future climate change and provide suggestions for the development of the seedling industry[Methods]The impacts of future natural and future social factors on the pattern of the seedling industry were analyzed using the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt),and the distribution of seedling enterprise agglomerations in East China under the background of future climate change was forecasted for the four time periods from 2021 to 2100(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100,respectively).2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100),the distribution of suitable zones under SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenario in the cluster of East China's seedling enterprises.[Results]Precipitation in the wettest season,the ratio of farmland,the ratio of urban land,the ratio of water,and the seasonal coefficient of variation of precipitation are the key factors influencing the distribution of the clustered areas of nursery enterprises in East China.When the precipitation in the wettest season is 417.1㎜-499.7㎜,the ratio of farmland is 0.58 to 1,the ratio of urban land is 0.003 to 0.076,the ratio of water is 0 to 0.189,and the seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation is 50.3-55.6 or 74.9-129.3,the distribution of East China's seedling nursery enterprise cluster area is suitable.In the future,in 2021-2080,the total area of suitable areas in the seedling enterprise agglomeration is higher than the current level in all four emission scenarios,but in 2081-2100,the total area of suitable areas is higher than the current level only in the SSP126 emission scenario.Among in the four emission scenarios,the area of suitable area expansion is the smallest and the area of contraction is the largest in the SSP585 emission scenario,and the area of suitable area decreases by as much as 33.65%in this emission scenario in this period;the total area of suitable area in Shandong Province and Anhui Province continues to increase,and the total area of suitable area in Jiangsu Province,Shanghai Municipality,and Zhejiang Province is on a decreasing trend;and in the period from 2021 to 2040,the The pattern of suitability changes dramatically in 2021-2040,affecting the overall pattern of suitability in 2041-2100;the center-of-mass of the suitability area continues to shift northward in 2021-2100,with the center-of-mass in Shandong Province under all emission scenarios;and more areas within the study area continue to be located in the suitability area in 2021-2100 under the SSP126 emission scenario.Shandong Province has the highest average stability indicators for all emission scenarios for the areas and counties with clusters of suitable seedling development enterprises.The average stability of the PIBAs in each province is lowest under the SSP585 scenario.[Conclusion]In the future,in terms of the development planning of seedling enterprise agglomerations,the suitability of seedling enterprise agglomerations in the southern region of Jiangsu Province is mostly affected,and it is recommended that Wuxi City,Changzhou City,Zhenjiang City and other regions carry out appropriate production compression and transfer the center of gravity of production to Nantong City,and,at the same time,Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province,as an important link connecting old and new hotspot areas in Shandong Province with those in Jiangsu Province;Seedling enterprises in Shandong Province are facing opportunities and challenges in the aggregation area,and its spatial pattern has changed dramatically,with more than 70%of all suitable areas of net increase in the area located in Shandong Province,and nearly 30%of all suitable areas of instability in the area is also in Shandong Province.This study is important for the development of climate-resilient development planning for seedling enterprises in East China.