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农业节水灌溉REITs项目IRR测算研究

Research on IRR Calculation of Agricultural Water saving Irrigation REITs Project

来源:国家预印本平台
中文摘要英文摘要

为有效盘活基础设施存量资产,增强资本市场服务实体经济质效,丰富资本市场投融资工具,我国于2020年开始推进基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金试点相关工作。水利工程公益性强,但因投资大、财务收益率低、回报周期长,而且投融资渠道单一、建设资金不足,严重制约了建设和发展,亟需通过REITs等工具实现盘活存量、吸引增量,同时促进水利稳投资、补短板。通过农业节水灌溉特许经营项目REITs案例研究发现,基础设施特许经营项目存在价值漏损时,可采用修正的B-S期权模型进行估值。案例分析表明,可分配现金流用于分红的比例越高,投资收益越高,但项目的看涨期权价值越低。在项目高溢价转让的情况下,银行贷款比例越高、偿还时间越短,IRR及投资收益可能越低。收益波动越大,看涨期权价值越大,但IRR可能会下降。采用B-S期权定价模型丰富了现有经营权类公募REITs资产估值方法,具有推广应用价值。对公募REITs并购贷款时测算不同贷款比例相同还款方式下的IRR而选择合适的贷款比例,具有实践指导作用。

In order to effectively revitalize the existing infrastructure assets, enhance the quality and efficiency of the capital market in serving the real economy, and enrich the investment and financing tools of the capital market, China began to promote the related work of the real estate investment trust fund pilot in the infrastructure field in 2020. The public welfare of water conservancy projects is very strong, but due to the large investment, low financial yield, long return period, single investment and financing channels, and insufficient construction funds, construction and development are seriously constrained. It is urgent to use REITs and other tools to revitalize the stock, attract incremental, and promote stable investment in water conservancy and make up for weaknesses. Through the REITs case study of agricultural water-saving irrigation franchise projects, it is found that when there is value leakage in infrastructure franchise projects, the modified B-S option model should be used for valuation. The case study shows that the higher the proportion of distributable cash flow used for dividends, the higher the investment income, but the lower the call option value of the project. In the case of high premium transfer of the project, the higher the proportion of bank loans and the shorter the repayment time, the lower the IRR and investment income may be. The greater the volatility of earnings, the greater the call option value, but the IRR may decline. The adoption of B-S option pricing model enriches the existing methods for the valuation of REITs assets in the form of public offering of management rights, which is worth popularizing and applying. It is instructive in practice to calculate the IRR under different loan proportions and the same repayment method and select the appropriate loan proportion when raising REITs for M&A loans.

王蕾裴晓桃陈天惠彭圣孙丽萍张建红

中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室北京经济管理职业学院北京京西生态文旅投资有限公司中化商务有限公司中国国际经济咨询有限公司中国国际工程咨询有限公司

10.12383/202212300003V1

中国水利,2023,无(11)

经济学

特许经营;公募REITs;B-S期权定价模型;并购贷款;收益测算

franchise; public offering REITs; B-S Option Pricing Model; M&A loans; income measurement

王蕾,裴晓桃,陈天惠,彭圣,孙丽萍,张建红.农业节水灌溉REITs项目IRR测算研究[EB/OL].(2022-12-30)[2023-12-11].https://coaa.istic.ac.cn/preprint/3444852.点此复制

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