极端暴雨下中小型水库链式风险识别与防控路径OA

Against the backdrop of global climate change,extreme rainstorms are increasingly characterized by short duration,high intensity,and strong local concentration.Under the extreme rainstorm scenarios,small and medium-sized reservoirs in China face multiple challenges,including sharp increases in flood inflow,degradation of engineering performance,insufficient forecast accuracy,and rising downstream risks.Following the five risk transmission links of"flood inflow—engineering capacity—risk perception—dispatch intervention—downstream evacuation",this paper systematically analyzes the risk transmission mechanisms of small and medium-sized reservoirs under extreme rainstorm conditions and the adaptability of the existing management system.The findings reveal that the impact of extreme rainstorms on reservoir safety lies in the accelerated rate of risk transmission and the simultaneous compression of safety margins and evacuation time,forming a typical multi-link coupled chain risk.The main problems in current management are concentrated in structural mismatches between dynamic risk boundaries and static recheck standards,gradual engineering performance degradation and an inspection-oriented model,the growth of multi-source information and insufficient integration,inadequate linkage between rolling forecasts and dispatch,and structural mismatch between compound disaster scenarios and conventional emergency support.Based on this,systematic prevention and control countermeasures are proposed,including dynamically rechecking flood control capacity,strengthening full-lifecycle engineering diagnosis,promoting integrated analysis of rainfall,flood,and engineering conditions,improving the rolling consultation and dispatch mechanism,and identifying dominant risk chains according to engineering conditions and downstream flood disaster impacts and implementing a differentiated"one reservoir,one policy"governance model.The research results can provide theoretical support and practical reference for the whole-process safety management of small and medium-sized reservoirs under extreme weather conditions.