气候融资新集体量化目标下中国碳定价的功能重塑OACHSSCD

The New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance(NCQG)adopted at COP29 in 2024 has driven a paradigm shift in global carbon pricing,making the authority to formulate carbon pricing rules a central arena for the competition over climate governance discourse power between developed and developing countries.Based on the theory of institutional discourse power,this study constructs an analytical framework of"financial leverage—rule coordination—governance synergy",examines the evolutionary patterns of global carbon pricing and the logic behind the divergence of major carbon pricing models,and conducts multi-scenario quantitative simulations of three levels of financing multiplier effects through a Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model.The findings indicate that global carbon pricing has officially entered a new era centered on finance-enabled climate governance.The nationally determined approach under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is most aligned with the core interests of developing countries,while the"reverse climate finance transfer"effect of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)has fundamental institutional conflicts with the objectives of the NCQG.China's carbon pricing system remains largely within the traditional paradigm of cost-constrained regulation,leaving significant room for functional enhancement across five dimensions:financial leverage,rule alignment,governance coordination,policy synergy,and support for a just transition.Under a steady reform scenario,carbon pricing could mobilize approximately RMB 3.58 trillion in annual financing by 2030.The study recommends improving the top-level design and institutional framework of carbon pricing to strengthen its foundation for financial empowerment;vigorously developing a compliant and multi-level carbon finance system to enhance financing leverage;actively participating in the formulation of global carbon pricing rules to strengthen institutional discourse power;establishing a"five-in-one"policy coordination system to systematically integrate the principle of just transition;and building a comprehensive risk prevention and control framework to effectively address the complexities of international rule-based competition.