东三省农业降碳减污扩绿增长效率时空特征及驱动因素研究OA

Clarifying the temporal and spatial characteristics as well as the driving factors of the agricultural efficiency in carbon reduction,pollution reduction,green expansion,and growth in the three northeastern provinces of China is of great significance for promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in this region.On the basis of the panel data of 32 major cities in the three northeastern provinces of China from 2014 to 2023,this paper used the non-desired output Super-SBM model,kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation and spatial panel econometric models for analysis.The results showed that the overall agricultural efficiency in carbon reduction,pollution abatement,green expansion,and growth in the three provinces exhibited an upward trend,with obvious phased characteristics and a continuously expanding spatial differentiation trend.At the same time,there was a multi-polar phenomenon of efficiency levels in the spatial distribution.In the global spatial dimension,the efficiency showed a significantly positive spatial correlation.On the local spatial scale,it presented five spatial aggregation types:cold spot area,sub-cold spot area,transition area,sub-hotspot area,and hotspot area.The econometric estimation results based on the spatial Durbin model showed that when the agricultural efficiency in carbon reduction,pollution abatement,green expansion,and growth in local cities increased by 1％,it would have a significantly negative outward spillover effect on the geographical adjacent areas,causing the efficiency of adjacent cities to decline by 0.126％,indicating that the model estimation results were valid and had a significantly negative spillover effect.The spatial effect decomposition further revealed the differences in the direct effects and spatial spillover effects of various influencing factors on efficiency.Specifically,the urbanization level and economic development level had significantly positive direct effects on the local efficiency improvement,while the industrial structure upgrading and rural greening degree had negative direct effects on the local efficiency;in terms of spatial spillover,the urbanization level,industrial structure upgrading,and rural greening degree exerted positive promoting effects on the efficiency of adjacent cities,whereas the production efficiency level showed a negative spillover effect.The study shows that there is a certain degree of spatial correlation in the agricultural efficiency in carbon reduction,pollution abatement,green expansion,and growth in the three northeastern provinces of China,while the local efficiency improvement has a negative spillover effect on adjacent regions,and the degree of spatial correlation remains to be improved.It is essential to strengthen inter-provincial and inter-city collaborative governance,implement differentiated development strategies,and strengthen in-depth cooperation of multi-dimensional adjacent elements.These measures are expected to transform negative competition into positive cooperation and promote the overall improvement of agricultural efficiency in carbon reduction,pollution abatement,green expansion,and growth.