基于地理大数据和未来洪涝灾害情景的上海超大城市建筑承灾体单体综合风险及经济损失评估OACHSSCD

In the context of global warming,relative sea level rise and frequent extreme storm surges continue to exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding in coastal cities.Therefore,conducting comprehensive risk and economic loss assessments of individual building elements at risk in megacities under this disaster chain is of great significance for improving urban resilience.Based on Sentinel-1A remote sensing imagery,this study utilizes the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(SBAS-InSAR)technique to retrieve the recent surface deformation field in Shanghai(excluding Chongming).By integrating data on sea-level rise and extreme storm-surge water-level rise,a hydrodynamic model is employed to simulate the inundation extent and depth of coastal flooding caused by seawall breaches in 2030 and 2050 under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs).Individual buildings were used as the assessment units.By integrating multi-source geospatial big data,a fine-scale assessment of comprehensive risks and economic losses was conducted for more than 1.2 million buildings in the study area.To address indirect economic losses,which have received less attention in previous studies,a Multi-Regional Input-Output(MRIO)model was introduced to assess inter-provincial associated economic losses.The results indicate that under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the number of high-risk buildings in Shanghai may reach 14600～17200 by 2050.Direct economic losses caused by seawall-breach coastal flooding are estimated to range from 4.616 to 7.914 billion CNY,while the corresponding associated economic losses may reach 9.440 to 16.196 billion CNY,significantly exceeding the direct losses.Further analysis indicates that economic losses may be transmitted outward through industrial chains and may exert a significant impact on provinces and cities in eastern China.These findings provide a valuable reference for enhancing urban resilience and promoting sustainable development in Shanghai.