流域水风光一体化基地容量配置规律研究OA

Integrated hydro-wind-solar development represents a critical pathway to enhance basin-scale clean energy ac-commodation,and scientifically determining the capacity configuration scheme is a key prerequisite for achieving both technical feasibility and economic viability.To reveal the balance between economic benefits and installed capacity in hydro-wind-solar complementary systems,this study develops a capacity configuration optimization model with flexibly switchable objectives:maxi-mizing either the annual net profit of wind and solar power or the total installed capacity;the model comprehensively considers generation revenue,investment costs,and technical operation expenses.Focusing on the Wudongde,Baihetan,and Xiluodu Hydro-power Plants in the lower Jinsha River,and following the complementarity principle of no additional hydropower curtailment,the influences of multiple factors on capacity configuration schemes are systematically analyzed,including the wind-solar capacity ra-tio,transmission corridor capacity,curtailment rate constraint,and power delivery curve.The results show that:① the profit func-tion of the hydro-wind-solar complementary system does not peak at an isolated optimum point;instead,it forms a plateau re-gion defined as the"Approximate Optimal Solution Set"(AOSS),containing multiple combinations of wind-solar ratio and in-stalled capacity.Within this set,the annual net profit of each scheme deviates from the global optimum by less than 3%.The width of the set is closely correlated with the degree of corridor occupancy by hydropower alone:the lower the hydropower-only utilization hours and the greater the corridor margin,the wider the set.② Relaxing the renewable energy curtailment rate con-straint increases the configurable capacity linearly.Nevertheless,the net profit of wind and solar power rises first and then de-clines,exhibiting a unimodal or bimodal pattern.An"economic curtailment rate"exsists to maximize economic benefits,and its value varies with wind-solar resource characteristics and system constraints.For Wudongde in a normal water year(unimodal),this rate is approximately 10%~15%,it is approximately 20% for Baihetan(unimodal),and Xiluodu presents a bimodal distri-bution with peaks at approximately 5% and 20%.③ When the transmission corridor capacity is 1.0,1.5,and 2.0 times as much as the hydropower installed capacity,the ratio of the configurable renewable energy capacity to the corridor capacity consistently ranges from 1.34 to 1.69,with a mean of approximately 1.5.These findings provide a simple and practical quantitative reference for rapid estimation in the preliminary planning of hydro-wind-solar integrated bases.