印巴地区武装冲突的时序特征与自激、衰减效应分析OA

Armed conflicts in the India-Pakistan region are a core security issue in South Asia,affecting the stability and security of China's southwestern border and posing a threat to the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in the region.Studying this conflict is necessary not only to secure peace,stability,security,and development in China's southwestern border areas,but also as an important practical step in China's engagement in global security governance and its efforts to promote the building of a community with a shared future for humankind.These examinations hold significant geostrategic,security,economic,and diplomatic implications for China.Spatiotemporal patterns represent a key focus of geographical inquiry,yet existing research has devoted insufficient attention to the characteristics of the temporal evolution of conflicts.This study systematically analyses the temporal characteristics,cyclical patterns,and self-exciting and decay effects of the evolution of armed conflicts in the India-Pakistan region between 1989 and 2025.It conducts its investigation based on five key dimensions,as follows:conflict between the Indian and Pakistani governments;conflict between the Indian government and armed groups;conflict between the Pakistani government and armed groups;conflict between armed groups;one-sided violence.The results indicate that,first,different types of conflicts exhibit significant differences in their evolutionary stages and characteristics,which in turn are reflected in the number of phases,intensity levels,and developmental trends.Second,weekly periodic effects are not evident,whereas monthly and quarterly periodic effects are pronounced.Monthly peaks are concentrated from May to October,and quarterly peaks are concentrated in the second and third quarters(troughs occurr in December and the first quarter,respectively).The periodic effects explain the existence of temporal dependence.Third,the self-exciting effect is present in all five categories of conflict but exhibits heterogeneity,with the probability of a conflict recurring rising markedly within a short period after an initial outbreak.The self-exciting effect serves as the primary driver of conflict between the Indian and Pakistani governments,among armed groups,and between the Pakistani government and armed groups.Although these effects are also present in one-sided violence,their contributions remain relatively limited,and such violence is still more influenced by historical factors.Fourth,the self-exciting effect exhibits a robust net impact,reflecting genuine temporal dependence among conflict events rather than being driven by hot months or commemorative dates.Except for one-sided violence,hot months generally increase conflict intensity.Political festivals have a more pronounced influence than celebratory festivals do.This study advances the literature by moving from descriptive analysis to mechanistic analysis,quantifying conflict dynamics,and comparing conflict types to support targeted interventions.Future research may(1)refine covariate specifications to improve model accuracy and explanatory power;(2)analyze,from a temporal perspective,the evolution from conflict to negotiation and trigger effects;(3)incorporate a spatial dimension to capture the heterogeneity and geographical diffusion patterns of conflicts;(4)compare the goodness-of-fit of different decay kernels;(5)further explore mutual excitation effects in India-Pakistan conflicts.