青藏高原县域农业经济与生态承载力耦合协调及驱动因素OACHSSCD

This study focuses on 183 county-level units on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and develops an evaluation framework for the coupling coordination between agricultural economic development and ecological carrying capacity.By integrating kernel density estimation,the Dagum Gini coefficient,and the Geographic Detector model,it systematically examines the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of coupling coordination from 2000 to 2020.The results indicate that:1)Temporally,ecological carrying capacity remained relatively stable,while agricultural economic development exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend and demonstrated significant adaptive development under the constraints of ecological carrying capacity.2)Spatially,the coupling coordination degree generally presented a fluctuating upward trend,without obvious spatial convergence.It demonstrates a structural feature of overall improvement accompanied by internal imbalance.3)Regarding the driving mechanisms,the temporal analysis indicates that improved development conditions represented by human footprint are significantly positively associated with higher coordination levels.Spatially,the spatial differentiation of coupling coordination degree is jointly shaped by natural geographical conditions and socioeconomic factors,with the interactions among all driving factors exhibiting an enhancing effect.Further analysis reveals that ecological constraints do not curb agricultural economic growth,instead,they define its developmental boundaries and evolutionary pathways.Although the adaptive growth of agricultural economy facilitates the improvement of coupling coordination,it cannot spontaneously drive spatial convergence.The coordinated evolution of agricultural and ecological systems at the county level across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is essentially an unbalanced coordination process shaped by the combined forces of stringent ecological constraints,limited developmental space,and regional disparities.In addition,the extended analysis for 2021-2024 indicates that renewable energy development was accompanied by changes in county-level human activity intensity.The regional mean NDVI showed no persistent downward trend,while counties with different levels of photovoltaic expansion exhibited marked spatial heterogeneity in ecological responses,providing supplementary evidence for the conclusions drawn from the main study period.