基于CMIP6的青藏高原未来极端降水风险定量化预估OA

Using Taylor diagrams,this study evaluates the performance of individual CMIP6 models and multi-model ensembles for simulating summer extreme precipitation indexes over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The evaluation was performed using four internationally recognized extreme precipitation indexes based on daily pre-cipitation observation data from 109 meteorological stations on the plateau between 1979 and 2014 and CMIP6 model simulation data.In addition,this study provides future projections for the characteristics of summer ex-treme precipitation,disaster risk potential,comprehensive risk,and their potential impacts on gross domestic product(GDP)and population under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for both the near-term(2026-2060)and long-term(2071-2100)periods on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Climate modes exhibit significant differences in simulating various extreme precipitation indexes;however,the MRI-ESM2-0 model exhibits the best performance for simu-lating extreme precipitation indexes in plateau areas.From the short-to long-term period of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario,the overall relationship between the magnitude of extreme precipitation index anomalies in various regions of the plateau is as follows:the Sichuan-Qinghai-Xizang high mountain canyon>Qil-ian Mountains>Zangnan Valley>Qingnan Plateau>Qaidam Basin>northern Tibetan Plateau.The magnitude of ex-treme precipitation index variations is SDII>R95P>RX5days>P95T,indicating an overall increasing trend.The anomaly values of extreme indexes are higher in the southern region of the plateau;furthermore,except for P95T,the cumulative frequency of high extreme indexes is significantly higher in the Zangnan Valley than in other re-gions.On the plateau,high-risk areas for extreme summer precipitation are concentrated in the southern region,and the scope of high-risk areas for disasters is projected to significantly expand in the long-term periods of the 21st century.The high-risk areas for disasters in the short-and long-term periods account for 7.8%and 17.7%of the total area of the plateau,respectively.Future projections indicate a continuous increase in the GDP of the pla-teau and a slight decrease in its overall population distribution.With intensifying extreme summer precipitation and increasing socioeconomic vulnerability,GDP-and population-based extreme precipitation risks will gradually increase in the southeastern region of the plateau.The Qilian Mountains and the Qingnan Plateau represent the ar-eas with the highest GDP and population,respectively,that are most exposed to these risks.