塔里木盆地暖季极端降水事件多维度特征分析OA

Investigating the evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation events not only improves our under-standing of climate change but also provides references for local disaster prevention and mitigation,water conser-vancy projects,urban construction planning,and other related fields.This study analyzes the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of hourly and process-based precipitation events,extreme event identification parameters,and recurrence period patterns in the Tarim Basin as the research area.The analysis was performed using methods such as extreme value distribution fitting and Copula joint function based on hourly precipitation data from 44 na-tional meteorological stations during the warm season(May to October)of 2005-2025.The results demonstrate that(1)the thresholds derived by combining the Hill and over-limit expectation graph methods exhibit some de-gree of robust uniformity.Due to the influence of terrain on extreme precipitation characteristics,the generalized Pareto and log-normal(LN)distributions are the most suitable for modeling extreme hourly precipitation events across high-to low-altitude stations.(2)A strong dependence exists between the precipitation duration of process-based precipitation events and their cumulative precipitation.The LN and generalized extreme value distributions provide a better fit for event duration and cumulative precipitation.Gumbel Copula is suitable for characterizing short-duration events,whereas Clayton Copula is suitable for characterizing medium-and long-duration events.(3)Extreme hourly precipitation events in the Tarim Basin have a short recurrence period of over 10 mm,general-ly ranging from 2 to 5 years.However,in 50-year events,the amplification effect of extreme precipitation in the high-value areas in the west significantly exceed those in the east,with an intensified spatial gradient and ex-tremely high potential risks.(4)For extreme process-based precipitation events with cumulative precipitation of≥24 mm,the northwest region requires the shortest duration in each recurrence period and is prone to short-term heavy precipitation.Within a 10-year recurrence period,disaster risks in the southwest have become prominent.The duration required for such events to occur has generally been reduced from 10-14 h under a 5-year recur-rence period to 6-8 h under a 10-year recurrence period,indicating an intensification of disaster severity.There-fore,special attention should be paid to flood control planning.