基于秒级阵风预测的风电机组转速备用模式动态切换策略OA

[Objective]High wind penetration reduces system inertia and threatens frequency stability,and the large-scale integration of wind power makes this problem more complex.Gusts are highly fluctuating and random;existing deterministic wind speed prediction methods cannot capture their high-frequency transient features,causing lag and misoperation in rotor speed reserve mode switching and limiting the turbine's transient frequency support capability.To improve frequency regulation,an adaptive switching strategy integrating probabilistic prediction and uncertainty awareness was proposed.[Methods]A second-level gust probabilistic prediction model was built using a denoising diffusion probabilistic model(DDPM)-Transformer architecture,with multi-dimensional turbine state parameters as auxiliary conditions,and Monte Carlo sampling was used to generate probabilistic prediction trajectories.An adaptive switching strategy based on a dynamic confidence corridor was designed,using action and return thresholds as the basis for mode switching.For fuzzy decision scenarios where the confidence corridor crosses the threshold region,the probability of wind speed exceeding the threshold was calculated,and proactive switching between over-speed deloading(OSD)and under-speed deloading(USD)modes was achieved based on the probability threshold.[Results]Simulations based on SCADA data from an offshore wind farm show that the proposed second-level gust probabilistic prediction model outperforms long short-term memory(LSTM)and temporal convolutional network(TCN)models in prediction accuracy.In the adaptive switching strategy,the proposed prediction model advances the average switching point by 3.6 s,significantly improves prediction reliability and response accuracy,and significantly enhances the turbine reserve power margin under gust scenarios.[Conclusions]Through high-confidence probabilistic prediction and uncertainty-aware decision-making,the proposed model and method achieve a shift from passive response to active anticipation for wind turbine speed reserve modes,suppress control misoperations caused by frequent mode switching due to inaccurate gust prediction,maximize transient frequency regulation capability while ensuring turbine safety,and offer a feasible solution for frequency stability control in power systems with high wind penetration.