一种结合时序InSAR技术的可解释性滑坡易发性制图框架:以中国贵州省为例OA
An Interpretable Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Framework Integrating Time-Series InSAR:A Case Study of Guizhou Province,China
针对传统滑坡易发性评价中动态形变信息缺失及模型可解释性不足的问题,以贵州省为研究区,构建融合Stacking-InSAR技术与机器学习的可解释滑坡易发性评价框架.基于Sentinel-1A影像获取年均地表形变速率,并联合地形、地表覆盖、气候及人类活动等14个静态因子进行建模.通过对比多种机器学习模型,结果表明,未引入InSAR形变信息时,各模型AUC值为0.896~0.921;融合形变信息后,模型整体性能提升3.5%~5.6%,其中InSAR-TabPFN模型表现最优,AUC达0.951.易发性制图结果显示,高易发区与较高易发区面积占比由22.1%降至13.11%,显著降低了稳定区误判率.SHAP可解释性分析表明,距河流距离、地表形变速率、土地类型、坡度和距道路距离为滑坡发生的主控因子,且地表形变与距河流距离存在明显的交互效应.研究表明,融合InSAR动态地表形变信息的TabPFN模型在预测精度上具有明显优势,而引入SHAP方法对模型进行可解释性分析,实现了各评价因子贡献度及其交互机制的量化表达,有效弥补了传统易发性评价中精度与解释性难以兼顾的不足.
To address the limitations of traditional landslide susceptibility assessments,namely the underutiliza-tion of dynamic surface deformation information and insufficient model interpretability,this study proposes an interpretable landslide susceptibility evaluation framework that integrates Stacking-InSAR technology with machine learning,using Guizhou Province,China as the study area.Annual mean surface deformation veloci-ties were derived from Sentinel-1A imagery and combined with fourteen static conditioning factors encompass-ing topography,land cover,climate,and human activities for modeling.Comparative experiments across mul-tiple machine learning models revealed that without InSAR-derived deformation data,the AUC values ranged from 0.896 to 0.921.Upon integrating deformation information,the overall model performance improved by 3.5%-5.6%,with the InSAR-TabPFN model achieving the optimal performance(AUC=0.951).Sus-ceptibility mapping results indicated that the areal proportion of high and relatively high susceptibility zones decreased from 22.1%to 13.11%,significantly reducing the misclassification rate of stable areas.SHAP inter-pretability analysis identified distance to rivers,surface deformation velocity,land use type,slope gradient,and distance to roads as the dominant controlling factors of landslide occurrence,with a notable interaction effect observed between surface deformation and distance to rivers.The findings demonstrate that the TabPFN model incorporating InSAR dynamic deformation data offers significant advantages in predictive accuracy.Fur-thermore,the integration of SHAP-based interpretability analysis enables the quantitative expression of indi-vidual factor contributions and their interaction mechanisms,effectively bridging the gap between predictive accuracy and model interpretability that has long constrained conventional landslide susceptibility assessments.
何浩;杨成生;王子倩;刘泽伟;孙天力;李欣朔;何沛梓
长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054长安大学地质工程与测绘学院,西安,710054
天文与地球科学
滑坡易发性评价Stacking-InSAR机器学习模型TabPFN模型SHAP方法
landslide susceptibility evaluationStacking-InSARmachine learningTabPFN modelSHAP method
《大地测量与地球动力学》 2026 (10)
1191-1204,14
国家自然科学基金(42574037)中国电建集团科技项目(DJ-ZDXM-2023-48).
评论