数字经济发展对地方财政风险的影响研究OACHSSCD

Under the new development paradigm,the growth of the digital economy provides new momentum for preventing and mitigating local fiscal risks.As an important policy instru-ment for promoting the digital economy,the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone merits in-depth investigation into its impact on local fiscal risks.Using the establishment of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper employs a multi-pe-riod difference-in-differences specification using panel data for 239 Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2012-2023 to examine the effects and mechanisms of the policy on local fiscal risks.The study finds that the digital economy significantly reduces local fiscal risks,a conclusion that re-mains robust after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism tests indicate that enhancing techno-logical innovation and optimizing resource allocation efficiency are important transmission chan-nels through which the digital economy reduces local fiscal risks.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of the digital economy on local fiscal risks is more pronounced in eastern regions,cities with a higher degree of fiscal decentralization,and cities with a lower level of digital infra-structure.Spatial effect analysis reveals that the digital economy has significant spatial spillover effects,effectively reducing local fiscal risks in neighboring cities.Therefore,it is recommended to leverage technological innovation as a lead to strengthen the preventive and control role of the digital economy against fiscal risks;to optimize resource allocation as a guide to enhance the digi-talization of fiscal management;and to implement differentiated policies tailored to local condi-tions,thereby fully unleashing the development dividends of the digital economy.