永定河流域小清河分洪区洪水模拟与风险区划研究OA
Flood Simulation and Risk Zoning of Xiaoqing River Flood Diversion Area in Yongding River Basin
在全球极端暴雨洪水事件频发的背景下,防洪减灾理念逐步从"控制洪水"向"管理洪水"转变.蓄滞洪区作为防洪体系的关键环节,开展其风险评估和区划研究对防灾减灾、社会可持续发展有着重要意义.本文以永定河流域小清河分洪区(北京段)为研究对象,构建一维和二维水动力耦合模型,模拟 50a 一遇、100a 一遇、200a 一遇和500a 一遇等不同重现期洪水演进过程.基于模拟的淹没水深、最大流速作为危险性指标,并结合人口分布、GDP 密度等易损性指标,利用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权,建立综合风险评价指标体系,最后通过 GIS 空间分析,完成洪水风险区划.结果表明:构建的水动力模型能够较好模拟主要控制断面的径流过程,纳什效率系数在 0.88 以上,洪峰相对误差小于 6%,峰现时间误差在 1 h 以内;小清河分洪区在 100a 一遇、200a 一遇和 500a 一遇洪水下承泄上游来水洪量占比分别为 15.45%、26.15%和 31.28%;综合风险评估显示,分洪区内高风险区主要分布在分洪闸下游、河道周边及低洼地带.研究成果可为永定河流域的防洪调度和区域发展规划提供科学依据.
In the context of escalating global extreme precipitation and flood events,flood mitigation strategies are transitioning from a"flood control"paradigm to one of"flood management".Given the pivotal role of flood storage and detention areas in defense systems,assessing their risks and zoning is crucial for disaster mitigation and sustainable development.Taking the Xiaoqing River Flood Diversion Area(Beijing section)of Yongding River Basin as the study area,a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model is developed to simulate flood evolution across various return periods(50-year,100-year,200-year and 500-year events).A comprehensive risk evaluation system is established by integrating hazard indicators(simulated inundation depth and maximum flow velocity)with vulnerability indicators(population and GDP density),using a combined weighting approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Entropy Weight Method.Spatial risk zoning is subsequently performed using GIS.Results demonstrate that the model performs well in simulating runoff at major control sections,with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)values exceeding 0.88,peak discharge errors below 6%,and peak timing errors within one hour.Simulation results show that the diversion area absorbs 15.45%,26.15%and 31.28%of upstream flood volumes under 100-year,200-year and 500-year return periods,respectively.Risk mapping identifies high-risk areas predominantly downstream of the diversion sluice,along river banks and in low-lying terrain.These insights offer a robust scientific basis for optimizing flood dispatch strategies and regional planning within the Yongding River Basin.
田伟;张奎忠;王一淼;陈超恒;王韵文;谷黄河;李一平
廊坊市水务发展有限责任公司,河北 廊坊 065099廊坊市水利规划发展研究中心,河北 廊坊 065099廊坊市水利勘察规划设计院,河北 廊坊 065099河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210024河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210024河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210024河海大学环境学院,江苏 南京 210024
建筑与水利
蓄滞洪区洪水综合风险评估水动力模型洪水演进模拟永定河流域
flood storage and detention areacomprehensive flood risk assessmenthydrodynamic modelflood evolution simulationYongding River Basin
《水力发电》 2026 (10)
20-27,8
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42271020)河北省省级水利科技计划项目(2025-84(GC))
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