水电绿色可靠容量及折减系数浅析OA

With the development of the new power system and the large-scale integration of new energy sources,the demand for firm capacity within the power system has been steadily increasing.Recently,the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)and the National Energy Administration(NEA)have issued several policy documents,including FGNY[2025]No.1171,FGNY[2025]No.1360,and FGJG[2026]No.114,which systematically define the concept of"firm capacity"for the first time and establish a corresponding compensation mechanism based on firm capacity.Based on the Dual Carbon Goals,this paper reviews the latest policy framework,conducts an in-depth analysis of the connotation and functions of firm capacity,proposes the definition and calculation formula of green firm capacity,and preliminarily explores the reduction impacts of various factors on the green firm capacity of hydropower.Preliminary research indicates that the reduction coefficient of green firm capacity for large and medium-sized hydropower units is affected by multiple factors such as reservoir regulation capacity,hydrological conditions and unit technical characteristics,ranging approximately from 0.6 to 0.9,and the reduction coefficient for pumped-storage power stations with daily regulation capacity stands roughly between 0.5 and 0.8.