"114号文"背景下抽水蓄能盈利策略研究OA

The issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC)"Document No.114"has profoundly influenced the traditional revenue mode of pumped-storage hydropower(PSH).This paper systematically investigates the potential impact of Document No.114 on the profitability of PSH projects by reviewing the evolution of pricing policies for pumped storage and the development of electricity market systems.A combined approach of policy comparison analysis and a dual-level clearing game simulation of an energy-regulating-reserve joint market are employed.The results show that:(a)Document No.114 marks a critical transition of the PSH pricing mechanism from"government-determined pricing"to"market-driven mechanisms",and the revenue structure of PSH has gradually evolved from a single capacity charge-based compensation to a dual-track model comprising"guaranteed capacity revenue"and"market-based flexible revenue";and(b)during the transitional period of rapid electricity market development,the profitability of PSH faces significant short-term challenges,however,in the long run,as market mechanisms mature,the diversified value of PSH in providing flexible regulation and ancillary services will be fully realized.Using the dual-level clearing game model,the optimal profit-seeking strategies of PSH stations controlled by grid companies versus non-grid enterprises are derived for three distinct future stages of electricity market system development.