印度对华情报工作的扩张路径及其效能局限OACHSSCD

[Purpose]Following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash,Indian intelligence agencies launched systematic organizational adjustments targeting China within an overarching expansionist framework.Analyzing the layout,characteristics,and potential implications of these adjustments constitutes a critical prerequisite for safeguarding China's border security and strategic interests.[Method]Drawing on organi-zational adaptation theory as its analytical framework and employing Open-Source Intelligence(OSINT)methodology,this paper uses In-dian government press releases,Ministry of Defence materials,IDSA and ORF research reports,Indian mainstream media investigations,and publicly available India-U.S.bilateral intelligence cooperation agreements as primary data sources to systematically examine India's publicly observable behavioral patterns across three China-directed intelligence expansion pathways—topic,technological,and collabora-tive—during 2020-2026.[Result/Conclusion]The study finds that India's China-directed intelligence work has advanced along these three pathways exhibiting four prominent characteristics:task specialization through differentiated inter-pathway division of labor;prioriti-zation of technical intelligence supported by a space-UAV-cyber triad;externalization of knowledge supply through an institutionalized think tank - intelligence community synergy;and expansion of China-directed intelligence collaboration capacity anchored in multilateral treaty frameworks.The paper advances the"structural expansion - effectiveness limitation"paradox as its core analytical proposition:while the above expansions have rapidly increased India's intelligence coverage density targeting China,the deep renewal of India's intelli-gence analysis culture and evaluation logic has severely lagged due to persistent path-dependency constraints,failing to produce synchro-nous improvement in strategic assessment effectiveness,and instead potentially increasing bilateral strategic miscalculation risks through the perpetuation of cognitive biases within technologized intelligence processes,thereby posing certain challenges to China's peripheral security environment.