1990-2020年黄河流域水库面积变化及驱动因素分析OA
Spatiotemporal dynamics of reservoir area in the Yellow River Basin and the underlying drivers
[目的]分析 1990-2020年黄河流域水库面积的动态变化特征,评估气象因子与人类活动对水库面积的影响及驱动机制,揭示流域水库面积的时空演变规律.[方法]基于 Google Earth Engine 云平台与 Landsat/Sentinel 多源遥感影像,提取1990-2020年全流域66座典型水库面积,结合Pearson相关分析与时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)解析气象因子与人类活动的时空异质性影响.[结果]1990-2020年,黄河流域水库总面积呈显著上升趋势,年平均增长速率为 9.43 km2/a,并在 2012年达到最高(1 205.63 km2),较 1990 年增长 36.61%.不同高程带水库面积变化差异明显,数字高程(DEM)>3 000 m海拔带的年平均增长率为 4.21 km2/a,远高于其他海拔带.GTWR 模型结果显示,驱动因子具有显著的空间异质性,年平均气温与降水量为主导指标,但在高海拔地区,受融雪补给滞后性的影响,降水量与水库面积呈负相关.[结论]人类活动在低海拔区域表现出明显的正向驱动特征,人口密集区水库受经济调控影响显著,蓄水变化更多遵循防洪与供水需求发展.本研究通过长时间序列监测与精度分析,揭示了自然-社会属性对水库系统的复杂影响,为黄河流域水资源优化配置与生态安全保障提供了科学依据.
[Objective]Reservoirs are critical components of water-resource regulation;understanding their long-term dynamics and the underlying mechanisms is essential for sustainable water management and ecological security.This study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of reservoir areas and the underlying natural and anthropogenic drivers in the Yellow River Basin.[Method]Spatiotemporal variations in water surface areas of 66 reservoirs across the basin were extracted from multi-source Landsat and Sentinel imagery acquired from 1990 to 2020 using the Google Earth Engine platform.Pearson correlation analysis and geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)were employed to quantify the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on reservoir area.[Result]In the past three decades,the total reservoir area in the basin increased at an average rate of 9.43 km2/year.The total reservoir area reached a maximum of 1 205.63 km2 in 2012,representing a 36.61%increase relative to 1990.Change in reservoir area varied across elevation gradients,with reservoirs at elevations above 3 000 m exhibiting the highest average annual increase,at a rate of 4.21 km2/year.The GTWR model revealed that mean annual temperature and precipitation,which varied spatially,were the dominant factors influencing reservoir areas.In high-elevation areas,precipitation was negatively correlated with reservoir areas,likely due to the lagged contribution of snowmelt to reservoir inflow.In low-elevation regions,human activities had a positive influence on reservoir areas.[Conclusion]These findings indicate that reservoirs in densely populated areas are strongly influenced by anthropogenic and socioeconomic factors,with reservoir dynamics primarily reflecting flood-control and water-supply demands.By integrating long-term remote sensing monitoring with spatiotemporal modeling,this study revealed the complex interactions between natural and socioeconomic factors in their influence on reservoir dynamics and provided scientific support for optimizing water-resource allocation and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin.
董军林;邱小琮;尹娟;王楚尤
宁夏大学 土木与水利工程学院,银川 750021宁夏大学 生命科学学院,银川 750021宁夏大学 土木与水利工程学院,银川 750021山西省地质调查院有限公司,太原 030006
天文与地球科学
水库面积气候变化人类活动时空地理加权回归模型驱动因素
reservoir areaclimate changehuman activitiesgeographically and temporally weighted regression modeldriving factors
《灌溉排水学报》 2026 (10)
107-114,8
宁夏自然科学基金重点项目(2023AAC02026)宁夏大学水利工程"一流学科"建设项目
评论