美以伊地缘冲突对全球炼化产业的影响及趋势分析OACHSSCD

The escalation of the 2026 US-Israel-Iran geopolitical conflicts has disrupted the relatively stable industry structure and division of labor in the global refining and chemical industry,becoming a critical turning point that is accelerating the restructuring of the global refining and chemical sector.This paper systematically analyzes the structural impacts of this conflict on the feedstock supply system for global refineries,crude oil throughput,refinery capacity utilization,refining margin,and global refining investment trends,as well as its profound impacts on the global supply system of key chemical feedstocks,the chemical industry cycle,regional division of industrial activity,operating dynamics of the chemical industry,chemical product pricing,cost and gross margin.It also examines the development trends in the global refining and chemical industry amid the prolonged US-Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict.The conflict is gradually rewriting the underlying logic of the global refining and chemical industry that has developed over the past 30 years with"prioritizing low-cost feedstocks and highly specialized global division of labor",pushing the entire industry into a phase of profound restructuring centered on supply chain security,diversification and upgrading of the raw material structure,and accelerated iteration of technological routes and industrial upgrading.From a longer-term perspective,it is also accelerating the global refining and chemical industry's efforts to reduce its dependence on oil and gas resources from any single region and promoting a more resilient industrial configuration and a more diversified supply structure so as to lay a foundation for a stable industrial transition in the post-fossil energy era.