中国数字经济发展与碳排放效率耦合协调的时空特征、影响因素及趋势预测OACHSSCD

Digital economy and green low carbon development are important forces driving high quality economic development in China,and whether they can achieve coordinated interaction is directly related to the construction of a modern industrial system,urban low carbon transformation,and regional sustainable development.Based on panel data from 284 prefecture level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper constructs evaluation systems for the development level of the digital economy and carbon emission efficiency,and comprehensively applies the coupling coordination degree model,kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient,Shapley value decomposition method,and GM(1,1)grey prediction model to systematically examine the spatio temporal evolution characteristics,sources of regional differences,influencing factor contributions,and future trends of the coupling coordination development between the digital economy and carbon emission efficiency.The main findings are as follows.First,during the sample period,the coupling coordination degree between digital economy and carbon emission efficiency in Chinese cities showed an overall continuous upward trend,with the national average level gradually shifting from moderate imbalance to primary coordination.This indicates that the supporting role of the digital economy in green low carbon transformation has continued to strengthen.However,the kernel density distribution shows obvious multipolar characteristics,suggesting that there are still large differences in coordination levels among cities and that regional stability needs to be further improved.Second,the decomposition results of the Dagum Gini coefficient show that the overall differences in coupling coordination fluctuated slightly,with the contribution of intra regional differences remaining relatively low.Inter regional net differences and transvariation density are the main sources of overall differences in different periods.The contribution rate of transvariation density continued to rise in the later stage,indicating that the overlap of coordination levels across different regions has increased and that urban differentiation within regions has become increasingly prominent.Third,the Shapley value decomposition results show that economic development level,urbanization level,and local fiscal input are important factors affecting the differences in the coupling coordination between digital economy and carbon emission efficiency.Among them,the average contribution rates of economic development level and urbanization level are relatively high,while the contribution of local fiscal factors increased significantly in the later stage.This indicates that urban economic foundation,population agglomeration capacity,and public fiscal support jointly affect the actual effect of the digital economy in enabling low carbon transformation.Fourth,the grey prediction results show that the future development level of the digital economy,carbon emission efficiency,and their coupling coordination degree will continue to rise,and the coordination status will gradually move from primary coordination to moderate coordination.However,the gap between the development level of the digital economy and carbon emission efficiency may continue to widen,indicating that the growth rate of the digital economy is faster than the improvement rate of green low carbon efficiency,and that their coordinated development still requires policy guidance and mechanism optimization.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:further improve digital infrastructure construction and bridge the regional digital divide;improve energy utilization efficiency and promote the deep integration of digital technologies into production,circulation,and governance processes;strengthen fiscal support,technological innovation,and industrial coordination,and guide the achievements of digital economy development to be transformed into improvements in carbon emission efficiency;meanwhile,promote the coordinated development of urban digital transformation and green low carbon transformation in accordance with local conditions,so as to enhance the coupling coordination level between the digital economy and carbon emission efficiency and promote high quality regional economic development.