家庭参与的凯格尔运动老年前列腺增生患者排尿功能障碍风险预测模型的构建OA

Objective:Construct a risk prediction model for urinary dysfunction in elderly patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH)who participate in Kegel exercises.Method:A prospective study collected data from 210 elderly patients with BPH admitted to the Nanning Eighth People's Hospital between January 2024 and December 2025.Using a random number table method,participants were randomly divided into a modeling group(147 cases)and a validation group(63 cases)in a 7:3 ratio.Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for urinary dysfunction in elderly BPH patients engaging in home-based Kegel exercises,and a nomogram prediction model was developed and validated.Result:The incidence of urinary dysfunction in elderly BPH patients who participated in the Kegel exercise was 27.14%.The AUC of the constructed nomogram prediction model for the modeling group and the validation group were 0.973 and 0.967 respectively,both of which were>0.900.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results were all P>0.05.The DCA threshold probabilities were 0%～92%and 1%～94%.Conclusion:The predictive model for the risk of urinary dysfunction in elderly patients with BPH based on family participation in Kegel exercises has good prediction accuracy,discrimination,calibration,high reliability,and the predicted results are highly consistent with the actual urinary function status of the patients.It can effectively distinguish between high-risk and low-risk groups and has high clinical practicability.