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迈向高质量保障的民生政策"三兜"目标实现路径OACHSSCD

The Path to achieving the"Threefold Safeguarding"Goal of People's Livelihood Policies Towards High-Quality Guarantees:Based on a Quantitative Analysis of 61 Award-winning Cases in China from 2016 to 2023

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的/意义]民生兜底目标从"广覆盖"向"高质量"转型,是夯实共同富裕治理根基的关键举措.系统探究民生政策"三兜"目标的实现路径,对完善民生保障制度及推进国家治理体系现代化具有重要意义.[方法/过程]本文基于2016-2023年61个获奖案例的纵向数据,运用熵权法测度政策目标实现效能水平,运用文本分析法与模糊集定性比较分析,探究技术、组织与环境三类前因条件如何通过复杂互动共同影响政策目标效能的提升路径.[结果/结论]政策目标实现效能呈现国家层面阶梯式演进、省域梯度分化、市域动态分异的多层次差异化特征;技术、组织与环境要素协同驱动政策目标实现,其中单一要素均不构成其实现的必要条件;识别出三条等效的实现路径,即技术-组织双轮驱动型、组织-环境内外协同型以及技术-环境适配赋能型,组态分析表明路径内部要素间存在功能替代关系.

[Purpose/Significance]The objective of people's livelihood safeguarding is transitioning from"extensive coverage"to"high-quality",representing a critical step in consolidating the governance foundation for common prosperity.Systematically exploring the implementation pathways of the"Threefold Safeguarding"objectives in livelihood policy is of great significance for improving the livelihood security system and advanc-ing the modernization of the national governance system.[Method/Process]Based on longitudinal data from 61 award-winning cases between 2016 and 2023,this study applies the entropy weight method to measure the ef-fectiveness of policy objective achievement.Furthermore,it utilizes text analysis and fuzzy-set Qualitative Com-parative Analysis(fsQCA)to investigate how three categories of antecedent conditions-technical,organizational,and environmental factors-interact in complex configurations to shape the implementation pathways leading to enhanced policy effectiveness.[Result/Conclusion]The findings reveal that the effectiveness of achieving policy objectives exhibits multi-layered differentiated characteristics,including phased evolution at the national level,gradient differentiation across provinces,and dynamic variation among cities.Technological,organizational,and environmental elements synergistically drive the achievement of policy goals,where no single element constitutes a necessary condition.Three equivalent configuration paths are identified:The technology-organization dual-drive model,the organization-environment internal-external synergy model,and the technology-environment adapta-tion-empowerment type.The configurational analysis indicates the presence of functional substitutability among elements within these paths.

李立清;喻明

湖南农业大学公共管理与法学学院 长沙 410128湖南农业大学公共管理与法学学院 长沙 410128

社会科学

民生政策"三兜"目标高质量保障

livelihood policy"Threefold Safeguarding"objectiveshigh-quality safeguarding

《智库理论与实践》 2026 (4)

61-72,12

本文系国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国特色基本民生兜底保障体系建设政策创新与实施路径研究"(项目编号:24AZD029)、国家社会科学基金后期资助重点项目"我国农村公共产品供给标准理论与实践研究"(项目编号:20FGLA001)、国家自然科学基金面上项目"农村重大突发性公共卫生事件应急能力形成机理与提升路径研究"(项目编号:72274059)研究成果之一.

10.3724/j.issn.2096-1634.20251113.0005

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