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矫正规范期望:家庭节能行为信息型干预策略的多主体仿真OA

Calibrating normative expectations:a multi-agent simulation of information-based intervention strategies for household energy-saving behaviors

中文摘要英文摘要

对家庭能源消费场景中的规范期望予以有效矫正是促进居民自觉节能的关键问题.该研究以信息型策略提升规范期望为切入点,应用问卷调查数据和多主体仿真技术,探究规范分享与行为可见策略对家庭节能行为在干预即期和干预后长期的影响作用.研究发现:①规范分享与行为可见两种信息型策略在干预期内显著促进家庭节能行为,但行为可见策略的干预效果优于规范分享策略.其中,规范分享策略可使购买型与习惯型家庭节能行为的实施比例分别提高9.7%和11.1%;而在行为可见策略干预下,实施购买型与习惯型两类家庭节能行为的居民比例分别提高11.7%和12.6%.②从长期干预效果来看,规范分享与行为可见两种策略的影响作用在干预强度减少时呈非线性下降趋势.特别地,规范分享与行为可见两种策略的干预强度分别减少至基准值的75%与50%时,家庭节能行为实施比例的提升幅度可维持在5%以上.而当完全移除规范分享和行为可见策略时,实施家庭节能行为的居民比例仍可提高2.8%~3.8%.③购买型与习惯型两类家庭节能行为对规范分享与行为可见两种干预策略的敏感性有所不同.在相同干预强度作用下,习惯型家庭节能行为的实施比例提升幅度约为购买型家庭节能行为的1.2~1.5倍.鉴于此,该研究提出应发展以行为可见策略为主、规范分享策略为辅的家庭能源消费行为干预体系,实现家庭节能行为干预策略长期平稳运行与干预强度动态调整的良性平衡,推动具有多元特征属性的家庭节能行为的分类管理与靶向干预,从而发挥信息型策略提升规范期望和促进家庭节能行为的倍增效应.

Effectively calibrating normative expectations within household energy consumption scenarios is a critical challenge for pro-moting residents'voluntary energy conservation.Focusing on enhancing normative expectations through informational strategies,this study utilized survey data and multi-agent simulation to detect the immediate and longitudinal effects of norm-sharing and behavioral visibility interventions on household energy-saving behaviors.The findings indicated that:(1)Both strategies significantly promoted household energy-saving behaviors,with the behavioral visibility intervention proving more effective than norm-sharing.Specifically,norm-sharing increased adoption rates of purchase-oriented and habit-oriented behaviors by 9.7%and 11.1%,respectively,while behav-ioral visibility increased adoption rates by 11.7%and 12.6%.(2)Longitudinal effects demonstrated nonlinear decay as intervention in-tensity diminished—specifically,maintenance of≥5%adoption gains occurred at 75%norm-sharing intensity and 50%behavioral visi-bility intensity,while residual effects persisted at 2.8%~3.8%above baseline after complete intervention cessation.(3)Habit-oriented behaviors exhibited 1.2~1.5 times greater intervention sensitivity than purchase-oriented behaviors under equivalent intervention condi-tions.Accordingly,this study proposes establishing a household energy consumption behavior intervention framework that primarily fo-cuses on behavioral visibility while using norm-sharing as a supplementary strategy.This approach aims to achieve an optimal balance between ensuring the long-term stability of intervention strategies and enabling dynamic adjustments to their intensity and facilitate cat-egorized management and targeted interventions for diverse household energy-saving behaviors,thereby systematically unleashing the multiplier effects of information intervention on normative expectations and household energy-saving behaviors.

程秀;李文博;龙如银

南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏 南京 210037江苏师范大学商学院,江苏 徐州 221116江南大学商学院,江苏 无锡 214122

资源环境

家庭节能行为规范期望信息干预长期干预效果多主体仿真

household energy-saving behaviornormative expectationinformation interventionlongitudinal effectmulti-agent simula-tion

《中国人口·资源与环境》 2026 (8)

95-107,13

国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于'动机-行为'构型的家庭节能行为多阶段维持机理与匹配政策研究"(批准号:72574101),"基于车辆替代异质性的私人电动汽车减排潜力及引导政策研究"(批准号:72274083)国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于政策体验效用的居民绿色生活方式驱动机理与引导政策研究"(批准号:72104108)国家社会科学基金重大项目"协同推进绿色低碳消费的体制机制和政策创新研究"(批准号:23&ZD097).

10.12062/cpre.20251207

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