气候政策转型风险敞口对企业财务柔性的影响OA

With the continuous deepening of global climate governance,transition risks arising from climate policy adjustments have become increasingly prominent,raising the critical question of how firms can respond through optimized financial strategies.This ques-tion has emerged as a pivotal topic attracting widespread attention from both academia and practitioners.Within the framework of dy-namic contingency theory,this study employed stock price data from 17 Chinese industries and financial data of A-share listed compa-nies covering the period 2007-2023 to analyze the mechanism through which industry-level climate policy transition risk exposure drove corporate financial flexibility reserves,thereby revealing the financial decision-making logic whereby firms built resilient buffers to mitigate the negative impacts of climate policy transition risks.First,a climate policy uncertainty factor was introduced into the Fama-French three-factor model framework and dynamically estimated using the time-varying parameter regression model with stochastic vola-tility(TVP-SV).The time-varying regression coefficient of this factor on the excess returns of industry stocks was adopted as the mea-surement indicator of climate policy transition risk exposure.Second,based on the two-way fixed effects model,this study examined the impact mechanism of this exposure on corporate financial flexibility reserves.The empirical results showed that:(1)Climate policy tran-sition risk exposure exhibited significant heterogeneous characteristics across different industries.(2)Climate policy transition risk ex-posure exerted a significant positive driving effect on corporate financial flexibility reserves.(3)Climate policy transition risk exposure compelled firms to adopt financial flexibility strategies through the dual squeeze of internal stranded asset accumulation and the tighten-ing of external financing constraints.(4)High-carbon-emission firms,non-state-owned enterprises,and firms with lower management risk preference exhibited higher levels of financial flexibility reserves.(5)Both supply chain finance and regional financial development were found to reduce firms'demand for financial flexibility reserves under climate policy transition risk exposure and to unleash their development momentum.Based on the above conclusions,this study puts forward the following recommendations:accelerating the con-struction of a dynamic assessment system for corporate climate policy transition risks and a resilient financial response mechanism;im-plementing differentiated and targeted transition policy supply;improving the collaborative support system integrating supply chain fi-nance and regional finance;and promoting the shift of firms from passive risk defense to proactive green transformation strategies.