跨境碳约束下的中国高碳行业出口:风险与效应评估OA

Representative cross-border carbon constraint policies,such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)and cli-mate clubs(i.e.,multilateral carbon trade barriers),are being rapidly implemented,posing significant export risks and decarbonization challenges for China's high-carbon industries.This study focuses on three carbon trade barrier scenarios:the EU CBAM,the U.S.CBAM,and the G7 climate club.It identifies the potential risk of China's high-carbon industries being targeted under these carbon trade barriers,measures export impacts based on a gravity model,and evaluates coping capacity by combining industry-level emission reduction potential aggregated from a bottom-up approach.The results indicate that:(1)China's high-carbon industries face a relatively high risk of being subject to carbon levies under the EU and G7 climate club scenarios,while the risk is comparatively lower under the US scenario.(2)Steel,aluminum,chemical,and cement industries exhibit higher exposure to carbon levies,whereas plastics,ceramics,and glass industries face lower risks,with aluminum and cement under the EU CBAM and aluminum and chemicals under the G7 cli-mate club scenario warranting particular attention.(3)Average decline in exports of carbon-intensive industries follows a pattern in which the EU exerts the strongest impact and the U.S.the weakest.Incorporating carbon-intensive industries into China's carbon mar-ket can partially offset the negative export impacts.(4)Metal smelting industries such as steel,aluminum,and copper can achieve effi-cient emission reductions through electrification and resource efficiency improvements,making their priority inclusion in China's car-bon market an effective strategy to counter carbon trade barriers,whereas chemical and cement industries face greater challenges in im-plementing emission reduction technologies such as electrification and fuel switching and may therefore be more severely impacted.Based on these findings,the study proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)Establish a forward-looking export risk monitor-ing system for high-carbon industries and regularly assess the impact of carbon trade barriers on exports.(2)Advance green and low-car-bon industrial transformation in close alignment with international trade rules and prepare in advance to address external carbon trade barriers.(3)Enhance the incentive role of the carbon market in high-carbon industry transformation,explore mechanisms for interna-tional linkage and mutual recognition of carbon markets,and support high-carbon industries in coping with export barriers.