多模态影像联合临床因素列线图模型预测乳腺浸润性导管癌伴导管原位癌成分的价值OA
Predictive value of a nomogram based on multimodal imaging and clinical factors for IDC-DCIS
目的:探讨基于乳腺 X 线摄影(MG)、彩色多普勒超声(CDUS)影像征象及临床因素构建的列线图模型对浸润性导管癌伴导管原位癌成分(IDC-DCIS)的预测价值.方法:回顾性分析 256 例经手术病理证实为浸润性导管癌(IDC)患者的临床及影像资料,按 7∶3 的比例随机分为训练集(n=179;IDC-DCIS 组 68 例,IDC 组 111 例)和测试集(n=77;IDC-DCIS 组 31 例,IDC 组 46 例),通过 LASSO 回归及多因素 Logistic 回归分析筛选 IDC-DCIS 的预测因素并构建列线图模型,评价其预测 IDC-DCIS 的价值.结果:患者年龄(OR=1.13,P<0.001)、绝经前状态(OR=25.94,P<0.001)、MG 报告致密型乳腺(OR=3.03,P=0.010)、肿块等密度(OR=4.99,P<0.001)、肿块伴可疑钙化(OR=3.39,P=0.002),以及 CDUS 报告肿块边界高回声晕(OR=3.59,P=0.003)为 IDC-DCIS 的预测因素,据此构建的列线图模型在训练集和测试集的 ROC 下面积(AUC)、灵敏度和特异度分别为0.828(95%CI:0.769~0.888)、0.515、0.946 和 0.823(95%CI:0.723~0.924)、0.516、0.891.校准曲线和临床决策曲线显示预测值和实际结果一致性良好,模型具有良好的临床应用价值.结论:基于 MG、CDUS 征象及临床因素建立的列线图模型可直观有效地术前预测 IDC 是否伴有导管原位癌成分.
Objective:To investigate the predictive value of a nomogram model based on mammography(MG),color Dop-pler ultrasonography(CDUS)features and clinical factors for invasive ductal carcinoma coexisting with a ductal carcinoma in situ component(IDC-DCIS).Methods:Clinical and imaging data of 256 patients with surgically and pathologically confirmed invasive ductal carcinoma(IDC)were retrospectively analyzed.Patients were randomly allocated in a 7∶3 ratio into a training set(n=179,including 68 IDC-DCIS and 111 IDC)and a test set(n=77,including 31 IDC-DCIS and 46 IDC).Predictors of IDC-DCIS were screened through LASSO regression and multivariable Logistic regression analyses,culminating in the con-struction of nomogram models.Then,the predictive value of the model for IDC-DCIS was evaluated.Results:Patient age(OR=1.13,P<0.001),premenopausal status(OR=25.94,P<0.001),mammography-reported dense breasts(OR=3.03,P=0.010),mass with equal density(OR=4.99,P<0.001),mass with suspicious calcifications(OR=3.39,P=0.002),and CDUS-reported hyper-echoic halo at the mass boundary(OR=3.59,P=0.003)were identified as significant predictors of IDC-DCIS.The nomogram model constructed demonstrated an area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,and specificity of 0.828(95%CI:0.769~0.888),0.515,and 0.946 in the training set,respectively,and 0.823(95%CI:0.723~0.924),0.516,and 0.891 in the test set.Calibra-tion curves and decision curve analysis exhibited excellent concordance between the predicted and actual results,substantiat-ing the model's strong clinical applicability.Conclusion:The nomogram model based on MG,CDUS features,and clinical factors can intuitively and effectively predict the presence of a DCIS component in IDC patients preoperatively.
赵明明;刘兴远;曹思薇;郑洪彦;王冬沫;张五岳;高波
哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001哈尔滨医科大学附属第二医院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
医药卫生
癌,导管,乳腺乳房X线摄影术超声检查,多普勒,彩色
Carcinoma,Ductal,BreastMammographyUltrasonography,Doppler,Color
《中国临床医学影像杂志》 2026 (8)
547-551,5
国家自然科学基金面上项目(62172129).
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