布鲁氏菌病通过活畜(肉牛/羊)调运传入千阳县的定量风险评估OA

In order to evaluate the risk of brucellosis introduction into Qianyang County,a quantitative risk assessment was performed,in which a scenario tree was constructed to illustrate the introduction pathways,a stochastic risk model was developed,relevant parameters were simulated using@Risk,and a sensitivity analysis of the results was subsequently conducted.The results showed that the probability of brucellosis introduction via a single live animal was 0.05%(95%CI:0.03%-0.08%),and that via one batch was 2.38%(95%CI:0.63%-4.90%).The probability that at least one infected animal would be introduced annually was 67.01%(95%CI:19.40%-94.10%).Sensitivity analysis revealed that the key risk factors included batch size and the number of animals moved,the probability of sourcing from infected premises,and the probability of animals entering the production system without origin quarantine,whereas the registration rate for origin quarantine was identified as the critical protective factor.In conclusion,the risk of brucellosis introduction could be effectively mitigated by controlling the sources and frequency of animal movements,enforcing origin quarantine,and improving the access and audit systems for live animals.Accordingly,it was recommended to reduce the frequency of animal movements or adopt a centralized introduction system,supplemented by comprehensive measures including public awareness campaigns,reporting upon arrival,and routine monitoring.