煤电-新能源-储能多异质主体动态演化下的多市场耦合仿真与系统韧性评估方法OA

To tackle resilience assessment challenges in complex,uncertain,and heterogeneous energy systems within a multi-market environment,this paper introduces an integrated resilience assessment and simulation approach for energy supply chains,integrating dynamic evolution of heterogeneous entities and multi-market collaboration.First,a dynamic evolution model is established for three heterogeneous entities(coal-fired power,renewable energy,and energy storage)by integrating multi-dimensional state variables(e.g.,technical status,fuel inventory,carbon quotas),capturing their decision-making and state-transition dynamics across interconnected electricity-coal-carbon markets.Second,leveraging mean field game theory,a multi-market coupled simulation framework is developed,reducing dimensionality through mean field distribution to reveal bidirectional interactions between macro-system states and micro-entity decisions.Additionally,a three-dimensional resilience evaluation index system(adaptability,resilience,economy)is integrated into a risk-averse,partially observed optimal control framework for quantifying the impact of entity decisions on system resilience.Finally,a distributed solution algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM)is proposed in order to ensure simulation efficiency and accuracy.Using the Northwest China power grid as a case study,scenarios such as stable coal supply,fuel shortages,and external shocks are tested.The results show that the proposed method effectively captures dynamic entity evolution and multi-market price linkages,accurately evaluates system resilience under diverse disturbances,and provides scientific support for energy market regulation and resilience-enhancement strategies.