1990-2023年中国失明与视力损伤疾病负担:基于GBD 2023的分析与预测OA
Disease burden of blindness and vision loss in China from 1990 to 2023:Analy-sis and prediction based on GBD 2023
目的 分析1990-2023年中国失明与视力损伤(BVL)疾病负担变化趋势及影响因素,预测2024-2050年疾病负担趋势.方法 从GBD 2023数据库获取1990-2023年中国BVL不同性别、年龄人群的患病人数、患病率、伤残调整寿命年(DALYs)及年龄标准化率(ASR)相关数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析、分解分析量化老龄化、人口增长和流行病学变化的影响,并使用自回归移动平均模型预测2024-2050年中国BVL的年龄标准化DALY率(ASDR).结果 1990-2023年,中国BVL患病人数从8 868.03万增长到21 846.86 万;DALYs 从 310.47 万增长到 578.24 万;ASPR 从 10 148.94/10 万降至9 740.56/10万;ASDR 从379.08/10 万降至 263.22/10 万.Joinpoint 分析显示,1990-2023年BVL的ASPR和ASDR呈波动下降,平均年度百分比变化(AAPC)分别为-0.13％(P＜0.05)和-1.09％(P＜0.05).BVL患病率随年龄增长而增大,95岁以上最高.近视力损伤、屈光不正和白内障为患病人数前三位病因;分解分析显示,老龄化和人口增长推动疾病负担上升,流行病学改变则起降低作用.预测结果显示,2024-2050年中国BVL ASDR呈下降趋势.结论 1990-2023年中国BVL疾病负担呈现绝对数值上升而年龄标准化数值下降、老龄人多发、女性多发的特点,以近视力损伤、屈光不正和白内障为主;预测2024-2050年BVL ASDR 将下降.
Objective To analyze the changing trends and influencing factors of the disease burden of blindness and vision loss(BVL)in China from 1990 to 2023,and to predict the trend of BVL disease burden in China from 2024 to 2050.Methods Data on the number of patients,prevalence rate,disability-adjusted life year(DALYs),and age-standardized rate(ASR)for BVL in different genders and age groups in China from 1990 to 2023 were obtained from the GBD 2023 data-base.The Joinpoint regression model and decomposition analysis were used to quantify the effects of population aging,pop-ulation growth,and epidemiological changes.The autoregressive moving average model was adopted to predict the age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)for BVL in China during the period 2024-2050.Results From 1990 to 2023,the number of BVL patients in China increased from 88.680 3 million to 218.468 6 million;DALYs rose from 3.104 7 million to 5.782 4 million;the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)decreased from 10 148.94 per 100 000 population to 9 740.56 per 100 000 population;ASDR declined from 379.08 per 100 000 population to 263.22 per 100 000 population.Joinpoint analysis revealed fluctuating downward trends in both the ASPR and ASDR for BVL from 1990 to 2023,with an average annual per-cent change of-0.13％(P＜0.05)and-1.09％(P＜0.05),respectively.The prevalence of BVL increased with age and peaked in the population aged 95 years and above.Near vision loss,refractive error,and cataract were the top three causes of BVL.Decomposition analysis showed that population aging and population growth drove the rise in disease burden,while epidemiological changes exerted a reducing effect.Predicting results indicated that BVL ASDR in China would maintain a downward trend from 2024 to 2050.Conclusion From 1990 to 2023,the disease burden of BVL in China is characterized by rising absolute values but declining age-standardized values,with higher morbidity in the elderly and female populations.Near vision loss,refractive error,and cataract are the predominant causes.The ASDR for BVL is predicted to decrease from 2024 to 2050.
田苗;李胜;张洁;梁丽金;袁卫玲
301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院
医药卫生
失明与视力损伤疾病负担伤残调整寿命年老龄化自回归移动平均模型
blindness and vision lossdisease burdendisability-adjusted life yearagingautoregressive moving aver-age model
《眼科新进展》 2026 (9)
722-728,7
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