土地财政依赖、隐性债务扩张与经济高质量发展OACHSSCD

Understanding the evolutionary logic and interactive relationship between local government fiscal behavior and the quality of local economic development under the fiscal decentralization system is of important practical significance for deepening fiscal and taxation reform and promoting high-quality economic development.From the perspective of vertical fiscal imbalance,this study employs a semiparametric spatial panel vector autoregressive model,complemented by a spatial Durbin model for robustness testing,to systematically examine the nonlinear impacts of vertical fiscal imbalance on land finance dependence,hidden debt expansion,and high-quality economic development,as well as the spatiotemporal transmission effects among the three.The results show that the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance exhibits a three-stage pattern,characterized overall by a dynamic evolutionary path of short-term incentive,medium-term constraint,and long-term forcing adjustment.Land finance dependence,hidden debt expansion,and high-quality economic development all display self-reinforcing and spatial agglomeration effects,and the impulse responses among them show heterogeneous transmission associated with geographic proximity and the degree of economic linkage.By focusing on optimizing central-local fiscal relations and regulating local government fiscal behavior,this study provides theoretical grounding and empirical support for promoting high-quality economic development.