四川省产业部门虚拟水转移格局及水资源短缺风险溢出研究OA

The expansion of industrial scale has intensified the contradiction between water supply and demand in Sichuan Province.Analyzing inter-industry virtual water transfer and the spillover risk mecha-nism of water scarcity can provide theoretical support for differentiated water resources management.Based on the input-output tables of 2010,2015 and 2020,this study aggregates the original 42 industrial sectors into 9 consolidated sectors,and adopts quantitative assessment models of virtual water transfer,water dependence and self-sufficiency,water resources pressure,and water scarcity spillover risk for em-pirical analysis.The results reveal that agriculture and construction industry represent the largest net out-flow and net inflow sectors,respectively,in terms of virtual water transfer;the core circulation pathways include"agriculture-manufacturing""manufacturing-construction",and"manufacturing-public serv-ices".From the perspective of water dependence and self-sufficiency,only the construction sector exhib-its persistent external water reliance,while all other sectors maintain relatively strong water self-sufficien-cy capacity.Regarding to water resources pressure and scarcity risk,all sectors remain under high water stress during the observation period.For the forecast period,water stress will gradually ease across all sectors except agriculture and manufacturing,which will stay under severe pressure.Moreover,virtual water transfer is accompanied by reverse spillover of water scarcity risks.