工业智能化对碳生产率影响机制与溢出效应研究OACHSSCD

Industrial intelligence stands as a core lever for advancing the green transformation of China's industrial sector and elevating regional carbon productivity.To deeply dissect its impacts on carbon productivity and the underlying mechanisms,this paper constructs a three-dimensional analytical framework integrating industry,energy,and technology,drawing on panel data from 30 provincial-level regions in Chinese mainland from 2010 to 2022(excluding Xizang).Employing a fixed-effects model,a mediation effect model,a spatial Durbin model,and a random forest model,this paper systematically analyzes the influence mechanisms,transmission pathways,spatial evolution patterns,and nonlinear characteristics of industrial intelligence on carbon productivity.The findings reveal that industrial intelligence significantly enhances regional carbon productivity and exhibits stage-specific nonlinear evolutionary characteristics;industrial structure upgrading,energy efficiency improvement,and green technological innovation are key mediating channels through which industrial intelligence empowers carbon productivity growth;the empowering effect of industrial intelligence on carbon productivity is more pronounced in underdeveloped regions;spatially,an asymmetric pattern of"local efficiency gains and neighboring region suppression"emerges,primarily driven by factor siphoning in developed regions,homogeneous industrial competition,and inter-provincial gaps in environmental regulation,resulting in significant negative competitive spillovers across provincial-level regions.Based on these results,differentiated policy recommendations are put forward,aiming to provide empirical evidence and decision-making references for narrowing regional gaps in green development and constructing a coordinated emission reduction pattern in China.