中国空间技术发展展望OA

Significance Space has become a decisive arena for major power strategic competition and technological advancement.The United States,lever-aging low-cost reusable launch vehicles,is rapidly deploying mega-constellations such as Starlink,increasing competition for scarce orbital and spectrum resources.It has also imposed restrictions on the export of space-related components,established selective international cooperation frameworks,and played a leading role in shaping outer space governance rules.These developments present challenges to China's space develop-ment.In response,China has pursued a path of independent innovation.Its space program is anchored by the BeiDou Navigation Satellite Sys-tem,crewed spaceflight,lunar and deep-space exploration,and civil space infrastructure.These efforts continue to strengthen China's technologi-cal capabilities and support national security.To meet the strategic demands of high-quality development of the aerospace sector,China is priori-tizing the enhancement of innovation capabilities,consolidation of the industrial ecosystem,and cultivation of global competitive advantages.This paper systematically reviews global trends in space technology across three pillars:access to space,utilization of space,and exploration of space.It summarizes China's landmark achievements,critically examines key industrial bottlenecks,and proposes strategic pathways for frontier areas,including heterogeneous mega-constellations,high-performance computing satellites,on-orbit servicing,embodied-intelligence spacecraft,nuclear propulsion and power systems,and cislunar resource development. Progress Global space technology has entered a new stage characterized by intensifying competition,accelerating technological iteration,and deepening commercialization.In recent years,launch costs have decreased substantially,commercial actors have become increasingly involved,and artificial intelligence has been widely adopted,profoundly reshaping the space industrial system.In the domain of access to space,space transportation is transitioning from low-frequency expendable launches toward high-frequency,reusable,and airline-like operations.The United States leads in reusable launch technology,while China has achieved a comparable launch frequency but continues to lag in overall launch capac-ity.In the domain of space utilization,space applications are evolving from standalone,single-satellite services toward systematic constellation development and integrated deployment.In the domain of space exploration,crewed spaceflight and deep-space exploration are expanding from habitation and operations in low Earth orbit toward cislunar space and,ultimately,the development and utilization of distant resources.These global trends provide benchmarks and impetus for China's strategic planning. Conclusions and Prospects To strengthen its strategic position in the evolving space environment,China should adopt a systematic,domain-specific development strategy spanning the full spectrum from very low Earth orbit to deep space.This framework encompasses six major orbital domains,each with distinct strategic roles and core capability requirements. In very low Earth orbit,the focus is on ultra-low-latency communications,ultra-high-resolution remote sensing,and persistent surveillance,leveraging its relatively clean space environment while addressing atmospheric drag and rapid orbital decay.In low Earth orbit,the priority is large-scale constellation deployment integrating communications,navigation,remote sensing,and computing services,while managing spectrum constraints and collision risks.In medium Earth orbit,enhanced positioning,navigation,and timing and cross-orbit relay functions are essential,requiring a backbone system that bridges LEO and GEO operations.In geostationary orbit,the efficient use of scarce orbital slots and the provision of wide-area information transmission and deep-space telemetry are critical,alongside challenges associated with orbital debris and communication latency.In cislunar space,the vision includes routine round-trip transportation,sustained habitation,and high-quality communications and navigation services,making this region an emerging frontier of space development.In deep space,sustained planetary exploration capabilities are required,including autonomous navigation,long-distance communications,and nuclear power and propulsion systems. Building upon this spatial framework,the paper further identifies five key areas for the high-quality development of the aerospace sector.The first is space-based network integration,which requires top-level coordination of communications,navigation,remote sensing,and comput-ing constellations and the establishment of standardized cross-orbit links to form an integrated infrastructure system.The second is space-based intelligent computing,which addresses the exponential growth of satellite data and the bottlenecks associated with ground-based processing by deploying computational resources across orbital nodes for real-time data processing and intelligent decision-making.The third is on-orbit servic-ing and maintenance,which entails transitioning from fixed,non-upgradable hardware toward maintainable and extensible spacecraft through technologies such as refueling,module replacement,and in-orbit assembly.The fourth is the intelligent evolution of spacecraft,shifting from pre-dominantly ground-commanded operations toward autonomous perception,decision-making,and execution,with embodied-intelligence space-craft potentially playing an important role in debris removal and space security.The fifth is space exploration and development,emphasizing rou-tine cislunar transportation,long-term habitation support,and in situ resource utilization. Looking further ahead,the paper outlines six strategic directions with phased development roadmaps.The first is complex heterogeneous mega-constellations,progressing from interlayer interoperability and autonomous networking toward seamless,on-demand heterogeneous net-works.The second is high-performance computing satellites,evolving from single-satellite computing capabilities through kilowatt-class power platforms toward a global space-based datacenter network.The third is on-orbit servicing and maintenance,advancing from life extension capa-bilities through modular construction toward intelligent,cluster-based maintenance services.The fourth is embodied-intelligence spacecraft,pro-gressing from prototype validation through the handling of non-cooperative targets toward systematic capabilities for large-scale debris removal.The fifth is advanced nuclear propulsion and power,progressing from small-scale technology verification through kilowatt-class power supply for extreme environments toward integrated propulsion and power platforms.The sixth is cislunar resource exploration and development,advancing from relay networks and safe landing technologies through reusable transfer stages toward a comprehensive development system encompassing resource prospecting,logistics,and sustained habitation. By systematically advancing these frontier areas and integrating national and commercial capabilities,China can strengthen its technological and industrial foundations,enhance the resilience and competitiveness of its space sector,and support the long-term development of its space capabilities.