不同类型生育支持政策对生育意愿的影响OACHSSCD

Accurately understanding the impacts of different types of fertility support policies on individual fertility intentions constitutes an important foundation for improving the fertility support policy system and advancing the construction of a fertility-friendly society.Based on the survey experiment method,this paper analyzes the effects of three categories of fertility support policies—economic support,time support and service support—on individual fertility intentions.The study yields four main findings:First,the effects of fertility support policies vary across policy types.Both economic support and service support significantly raise individuals'ideal number of children,whereas time support shows no statistically significant effect on fertility intentions.Second,different policy instruments operate through distinct mechanisms.Service support exerts a pronounced safety-net effect,significantly lowering the probability that individuals report zero ideal children.By contrast,economic support does not produce a notable safety-net effect.Its influence mainly manifests as an incentive effect,increasing the ideal number of children among individuals who already hold fertility intentions.Third,there are gender-related disparities in the fertility constraints alleviated by different policy instruments.Economic support policies alter the gender composition of ideal children and significantly strengthen individuals'preference for having sons,while neither service support nor time support generates such an effect.Fourth,policy effects exhibit marked population heterogeneity.Fertility support policies exert more prominent influences on unmarried groups,and their effects become more salient when intergenerational family support is insufficient.The findings provide new empirical evidence for optimizing and implementing targeted fertility support policy systems.