德国技术预测发展历程、特征及对中国的启示OACHSSCD

After more than 40 years of development,Germany has established a distinctive operational framework for technology forecasting.The organizational structure of technology forecasting has been steadily improved,forecasting theories have been progressively refined,and the system of forecasting methods has been continuously matured.The forecasting results have not only supported the decision-making of government departments in science and technology management but also enhanced interaction with the public.In light of Germany's experience,China's technology forecasting should focus on the coordination of periodicity and immediacy,strengthen the openness and inclusiveness of technology forecasting work,and pay attention to the multi-channel and multi-scenario application of technology forecasting results.