职业发展与生育意愿OACHSSCD
Career development and the Fertility Intentions:With the Impact of the"35-Year-Old Threshold"
本文利用2020年中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies,CFPS)数据,将"35岁门槛"作为劳动者职业发展的负面冲击,研究了职业发展对劳动者生育意愿的影响及潜在机制.研究发现:(1)职业发展受限显著降低了劳动者的生育意愿;(2)职业发展受限加剧了劳动者"家庭-工作"时间的冲突,降低了其对未来的信心,恶化了其婚姻关系,从而导致劳动者的生育意愿下降;(3)异质性分析表明,职业发展受限主要降低了男性和低学历劳动者的生育意愿,对女性和高学历劳动者的生育意愿未产生显著影响,同时职业发展受限也弱化了劳动者生育男孩的偏好.本文丰富了职业发展与劳动者生育意愿的相关研究,对如何提升中国家庭的生育意愿与生育率具有重要的政策启示.
Using the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2020,this paper constructs a regression model to explore the causal relationship between career development and workers' fertility intention and its influencing mechanism.The results show that:(1)the hindered career development of workers will significantly reduce their fertility intention;(2)Blocked career development will prolong workers' working hours,further unbalance their"family-work"time allocation,reduce workers' confidence in the future,have a negative impact on their marriage relationship,and then lead to a decline in workers' fertility intention;(3)Heterogeneity analysis indicates that limited career advancement primarily reduces the fertility intentions of male and low-education workers.It has no impact on the fertility intentions of female and high-education workers.Furthermore,limited career advancement weakens workers' preference for having a son.This paper enriches the theoretical research on career development and workers' fertility intention.
汪伟;吴晓恒
上海财经大学公共管理学院||上海财经大学中国式现代化研究院上海财经大学公共管理学院
社会科学
职业发展自我概念生育意愿35岁门槛
《经济学报》 2026 (3)
52-69,18
本研究受国家社科基金重大项目(领军人才项目)"人口老龄化的收入不平等效应及对策研究"(编号:23VRC052)、国家社会科学基金重大项目"全面实施供给侧结构性改革研究"(编号:22ZDA049)、上海高校东方学者特聘教授支持计划(2023140001)、中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2025110721,2025110400,2025110511)的资助.
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