智能经济递归增长理论的创建、量化与落地研究OACHSSCD

Based on Marx's fundamental principle that science and technology constitute the primary productive forces,this paper critically inherits neoclassical growth theory,Romer's endogenous growth theory,Lucas's human capital theory,and the en-dogenous institutional growth theories proposed by North and Acemoglu.Taking Recursive Self-Improvement(RSI)technology as the underlying technological pivot,it systematically constructs a complete analytical framework for the recursive growth theory of the intelligent economy.First,this paper traces the theoretical pedigree of recursion and clarifies the internal correlation between I.J.Good's intelligence explosion hypothesis and the RSI technological paradigm.Second,it defines the core connotation of RSI,its four-layer closed-loop operation mechanism,three engineering paths and endogenous technical constraints,and establishes a micro technological foundation linking bottom-up intelligent self-evolution to economic growth.Third,recursive growth is decomposed in-to three progressive mechanisms:at the micro level,large models and multi-agent systems realize autonomous recursive technologi-cal iteration relying on RSI;at the meso level,new production factors including data,computing power and tokens achieve closed-loop proliferation;at the macro level,recursive diffusion across the whole industrial chain continuously raises total factor produc-tivity.Fourth,a mathematical model for the recursive proliferation of new factors is constructed.This paper proposes Ghost GDP as a quantitative indicator of recursive growth and illustrates its paradigmatic innovation value by transforming Solow residuals into iden-tifiable and measurable output increments.Combined with three typical industrial cases including connected vehicle navigation sys-tems,clinical medical large models and networked humanoid robots,this paper depicts the practical operation mechanism of recur-sive growth.The deduction reveals that with the large-scale implementation of artificial general intelligence and multi-agent collabo-rative systems,Ghost GDP will evolve from a marginal component of economic increments into the main body of national output,bringing four systematic challenges to the traditional macro-control system:weakened economic cyclical fluctuations accompanied by intensified structural shocks;a dual price pattern featuring coexisting physical deflation and digital inflation;disruptive restruc-turing of employment structure;and accumulation of cross-border systemic risks in digital finance.Facing the new stage of intelli-gent economy led by recursive growth,China should establish a new macro-control paradigm adapting to the operating rules of the intelligent economy,targeting four objectives:green development(coordination of computing and power supply),coordinated de-velopment(structural policies to offset developmental imbalances),people-oriented development(avoiding the trap of jobless growth),and integrated development(institutional advancement of the"AI+"initiative).A comparison between the Europe-U.S.free-market model and China's dual-track development path combining market forces and institutional governance demonstrates that purely laissez-faire recursive evolution tends to trigger market failures such as compound monopolies of data and computing po-wer and severe deterioration of income distribution.Embedded institutional constraints are essential to ensure inclusive sharing of divi-dends brought by intelligent technology.This paper verifies that RSI-driven recursive growth serves as the most critical source of growth for new quality productive forces.Relying on the institutional strengths of the socialist market economy,China has favorable conditions to take the lead globally in establishing a modern macroeconomic regulation and governance system suited to the era of in-telligent economy.