特朗普第二任期美国对华海上通道竞争探析OACHSSCD
U.S.Competition with China over Maritime Corridors in Trump's Second Term
当前,大国海权博弈已超越传统军事对抗,演变为基于节点、连线、载体的复合地缘经济系统的竞争.因此,对枢纽港口、海上航线、海事装备及供应规则等海上通道要素的掌控能力,决定了大国在全球海权格局中的地位.第二度就任美国总统后,特朗普执意推动海上通道成为美国对华竞争的核心议题.其推进举措主要体现在三个维度:一是整合情报、政治和资本优势,打压中国对枢纽港口的建设运营;二是通过掌控主干航线、分化门户港口、抢占新航线布局,阻遏中国对海上航线的拓展;三是规制海事装备供应链,构建"去中国化"规则.在此影响下,中国海上供应链的成本和全球海运安全的风险被抬升,中国多元化通道布局与战略空间受到压缩,大国海上竞争白热化,全球陆海互联互通体系面临被分割的风险.不过,受制于全球经贸深度互联、产业链高度依存的市场规律,美国难以将中国排除于全球互联互通网络之外.
Major-power maritime rivalry goes beyond conventional military confrontation,evolving into competition among complex geo-economic systems built on nodes,links and carriers.Therefore,a major power's status within the global maritime power order hinges on its capacity to dominate components of maritime corridor including hub ports,shipping lanes,maritime equipment and relevant regulations.Since Donald Trump commenced his second presidential term,he has deliberately pushed maritime passageways to become a core geopolitical agenda in U.S.competition with China.His major policy initiatives are manifested in three dimensions.First,it leverages its advantages in intelligence,systems and capital to suppress China's construction and operation of hub ports.Second,it seeks to contain China's expansion of maritime shipping routes by dominating trunk sea lanes,splitting gateway ports and scrambling to lay out new shipping routes.Third,it regulates supply chains of maritime equipment and formulates"de-Sinicized"rules.Against such backdrop,the costs of China's maritime supply chains and risks to global shipping security have been forced upward.China's diversified corridor layout has encountered obstacles,and its strategic space is being squeezed.This further intensifies major-power maritime competition,leaving the global land-sea connectivity system vulnerable to fragmentation.Nevertheless,constrained by market laws featured by deeply interconnected modern global economy and highly interdependent industrial chains,the U.S.can hardly exclude China from global connectivity networks.
李德杰
中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所海疆研究室(北京 邮编:100101)
社会科学
美国对华竞争海上通道基建竞争互联互通
U.S.competition with Chinamaritime corridorinfrastructure competitioninterconnection
《国际论坛》 2026 (5)
64-79,16
本文系中国社会科学院"青启计划"资助项目"大国印度洋基建竞争对地区秩序的影响研究"(项目号:2026QQJH47)和中国社会科学院学科建设"登峰战略"资助重点学科"中国边疆安全学"(项目号:DF2023ZD06)的阶段性成果.
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