2000年以来河西走廊文化遗产灾害风险评估及空间分异驱动因素分析OACHSSCD
Disaster risk assessment and drivers of spatial differentiation of cultural heritage in the Hexi Corridor since 2000
河西走廊是我国丝绸之路文化遗产集中分布区,长期受干旱、风沙、土地利用变化和遗产本体老化等多重因素影响.文中以河西走廊武威、金昌、张掖、酒泉和嘉峪关五市234处文化遗产为研究对象,从遗产本体脆弱性、致灾因子危险性和孕灾环境敏感性三个方面构建灾害风险评估指标体系,基于多源数据和熵权法,对2000、2005、2010、2015和2020年文化遗产灾害风险进行综合评价,并采用地理探测器分析综合风险空间分异的主导因素及其交互作用.结果表明:河西走廊文化遗产本体脆弱性具有明显类型差异,古遗址、古建筑等易损类型占比较高;致灾因子中,干燥度和土壤风蚀模数是影响遗产外部风险的重要因素,水蚀风险整体相对较低;孕灾环境敏感性主要受地貌类型控制,土地利用变化对局部敏感性具有调节作用.2000年以来,研究区综合风险整体以极低风险和低风险为主,但部分遗产点风险等级有所升高,空间上表现为西段高于中东段.地理探测结果显示,地貌类型对综合风险空间分异具有较强解释力,各因子交互后解释力普遍增强,其中"土地利用×地貌类型"组合解释力最高,说明河西走廊文化遗产灾害风险是自然地理条件、干旱风沙过程、土地利用变化和遗产本体脆弱性共同作用的结果.研究结果可为河西走廊文化遗产分区保护、重点监测和风险防控提供参考.
The Hexi Corridor is a major concentration area of Silk Road cultural heritage in China,where heritage sites have long been affected by multiple factors,including drought,aeolian sand activity,land-use change,and the deterioration of heritage materials.Taking 234 cultural heritage sites in Wuwei,Jinchang,Zhangye,Jiuquan,and Jiayuguan within the Hexi Corridor as the research objects,this study constructed a disaster risk assessment index system from three dimensions:heritage vulnerability,hazard intensity,and environmental sensitivity.Based on multi-source data and the entropy weight method,the disaster risk of cultural heritage sites in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 was evaluated.The geographical detector model was further used to identify the dominant factors and interaction effects influencing the spatial differentiation of comprehensive risk.The results show that the vulnerability of cultural heritage sites in the Hexi Corridor varies markedly by heritage type,with highly vulnerable types such as ancient sites and ancient buildings accounting for a relatively high proportion.Among the hazard factors,aridity and soil wind erosion modulus are important factors affecting external heritage risk,whereas water erosion risk is generally low.Environmental sensitivity is mainly controlled by geomorphic type,while land-use change plays a regulatory role in local sensitivity.Since 2000,the comprehensive risk of cultural heritage in the study area has been dominated by extremely low-and low-risk levels,although some heritage sites have shown an increase in risk level.Spatially,risk is generally higher in the western section than in the central and eastern sections.The geographical detector results indicate that geomorphic type has strong explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of comprehensive risk,and the explanatory power generally increases after factor interaction.Among all interactions,the combination of"land use × geomorphic type"shows the highest explanatory power,indicating that disaster risk to cultural heritage in the Hexi Corridor is jointly shaped by natural geographical conditions,drought and aeolian processes,land-use change,and heritage vulnerability.The findings provide a reference for zoning-based conservation,key monitoring,and risk prevention of cultural heritage in the Hexi Corridor.
杜昊霖;王莺;王一行;张越;张铁军
中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州 730020中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州 730020中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州 730020中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州 730020兰州区域气候中心,兰州 730020
社会科学
河西走廊文化遗产灾害风险评估干旱
Hexi Corridorcultural heritagedisaster risk assessmentdrought
《干旱区资源与环境》 2026 (9)
109-121,13
中国气象局气候变化专题项目"干旱区气候变化及其对文化遗产保护的潜在风险研究"国家自然科学基金(41975016)资助.
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