昌马水库入库径流量演变特征及驱动因素OA

Understanding the evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of reservoir inflow runoff is essen-tial for addressing climate change and optimizing water resource management.Taking the Changma Reservoir catchment in the Shule River Basin as a case study,this research systematically analyzed the multi-scale varia-tions in inflow runoff and their driving factors and interaction patterns using daily inflow data from 2003 to 2025,along with multi-source datasets on meteorology,cryosphere,vegetation,and human activities.Methods applied include linear trend analysis,moving t-test,Pettitt test,wavelet analysis,and optimal parameter geo-detector.Re-sults show that annual and flood season runoff exhibit fluctuating upward trends,with a unimodal seasonal pat-tern;the flood season concentrates between May and September,and extreme runoff events have significantly in-creased since 2016.No global abrupt changes were detected in annual or flood season runoff,but non-flood sea-son runoff showed a significant shift in 2015.Runoff displays a dominant cycle of 9-11 years and a secondary cy-cle of 2-3 years.Precipitation remains the primary driver of runoff variation.From 2010 to 2020,the driving structure shifted from meltwater-dominated supply to one driven by coupled water balance and vegetation dynam-ics,with evapotranspiration gaining greater explanatory power while temperature and snow water equivalent con-tributions declined.All factor interactions exhibited enhancing effects.These findings provide scientific support for optimized reservoir operation and refined water resource management at the basin scale.