基于组合赋权-TOPSIS的灌区现代化演变特征与障碍诊断OA

[Background]Irrigation district modernization is essential for improving irrigation water-use efficiency and facilitating sustainable water-resource management.In this paper,we analyzed the long-term changes in modernization of irrigation districts in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and identified the key constraints and drivers that have hindered or facilitated modernization.[Method]We used the Panzhuang Irrigation District as a case study and constructed an evaluation index system covering water-resource use efficiency,socioeconomic benefits and irrigation-infrastructure support capacity,based on data collected from 2001 to 2023.A game-theory-based combined weighting method,integrated with the analytic hierarchy process and entropy-weight method,was used to determine the weights of individual indicators.The TOPSIS model was used to dynamically evaluate the modernization level,and an obstacle-degree model was used to diagnose the key factors constraining the modernization.[Result]①The combined weighting results indicated that investment in water-saving renovation projects,per capita income,and water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industry-added value were the three most important factors influencing the modernization level.② From 2001 to 2023,the modernization level of the irrigation district followed a trajectory of'fluctuating growth-rapid growth-plateauing'with the comprehensive evaluation score increasing from 0.275 3 to 0.665 1;meanwhile,the water-resource carrying capacity improved from Grade Ⅱ to Grade Ⅳ.③Obstacle-degree analysis revealed that the factors constraining modernization shifted substantially during the study period.[Conclusion]Modernization of the Panzhuang Irrigation District has made substantial progress,with the dominant constraints shifting from low water-use efficiency and poor management in the early stage to unstable investment and increasing water-resource scarcity in the later stage.Future modernization efforts should focus on establishing stable,long-term investment mechanisms and improving coordination of water and land resource usage to support sustainable development in the basin.