中小河流洪水应急测报效能评估与提升策略OA

Systematic review studies on grassroots emergency response to flash floods triggered by weather systems such as upper-level troughs and southwesterly jets are still insufficient.This study takes a typical flood event in Nandan County,Guangxi,in June 2025 as an example to review the entire process of emergency monitoring and forecasting.The results show that despite timely warnings and high forecast accuracy(error<0.2 m),two major bottlenecks persist:a high rate of missing flow data at key stations(up to 75%)and short warning lead times(only 2-6 hours).The former stems from the mismatch between emergency deployment and flood predictability,while the latter is constrained by the lag in model response to short-duration intense rainfall.The study confirms that a closed-loop"diagnosis-optimization"management based on in-depth review is key to improving grassroots capabilities.Accordingly,optimization pathways such as constructing an integrated"space-air-ground"monitoring system,developing radar-based nowcasting warning models,and establishing a dynamic emergency dispatch mechanism are proposed.These measures provide reference value for enhancing the flood prevention capacity of small and medium-sized rivers in similar regions.