中国与全球喉癌年龄-时期-队列模型构建及预测研究OA

OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal trends and age-period-cohort(APC)effects of the laryngeal cancer disease burden in China and globally from 1992 to 2021,and to project its trajectory up to 2036.METHODS Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 study,the Joinpoint regression model was employed to calculate the average annual percentage changes(AAPC)in the incidence,prevalence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rates.An age-period-cohort(APC)model was utilized to evaluate the independent effects of age,period,and cohort.Furthermore,the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was applied to forecast the disease burden of laryngeal cancer in China from 2022 to 2036.RESULTS From 1992 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of laryngeal cancer in China remained relatively stable(AAPC=0%),whereas the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)increased significantly(AAPC=0.8%).Conversely,the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)and DALY rates declined notably(AAPC=－1.7%and －1.9%,respectively).Over the same period,all global age-standardized rates exhibited a continuous downward trend.In China,all disease burden indicators for males were significantly higher than those for females.Both the incidence and mortality rates of laryngeal cancer in China increased with age,peaking in the 85-89 years age group.Period and cohort effects indicated that the incidence risk of laryngeal cancer in China reached its peak in the 1998-2006 birth cohort.ARIMA projections indicate that by 2036,the ASIR and ASMR for Chinese males will rise to 3.25/100 000 and 1.14/100 000,respectively,remaining significantly higher than those for females(0.59/100 000 and 0.24/100 000).CONCLUSION The dynamic changes in the disease burden of laryngeal cancer in China and globally are complex.Although the overall age-standardized mortality rate in China has declined,the prevalent population continues to grow and exhibits a profound aging trend.Future efforts should prioritize implementing differentiated prevention and management strategies tailored to high-risk males and the elderly population.