世界时预报误差对卫星定轨精度影响分析OA

Aiming at the critical influence of universal time 1(UT1)prediction accuracy on satellite precise orbit determination,this paper quantitatively analyzes the prediction performance of 116 bat-ches of Bulletin A released by the international Earth rotation and reference systems service(IERS).Taking multi-orbit targets including the TianQin-3 satellite,space station and Beidou satellites as ex-amples,the magnitude estimation formula for the influence of UT1 prediction error on orbit determi-nation accuracy is verified.A rapid evaluation of the three-dimensional orbital deviation of satellites is realized only based on orbital radius and universal time error.The analysis results show that the UT1 prediction error of Bulletin A exhibits obvious uncertainty and increases significantly with the growth of time scale.Its 30-day mean prediction error(3.399 ms)causes orbital deviations ranging from 1.673 m to 24.79 m for satellites from low Earth orbit to deep space exploration represented by the TianQin-3 satellite.The quantitative results reveal that the accuracy of existing prediction products has a non-negligible impact on future high-precision aerospace missions,and demonstrate the necessity of developing China's independent and high-precision universal time measurement and pre-diction system.