大兴安岭白桦林凋落物载量动态预测OA

Standing forest litter is regarded as the residual cumulative mass of litter decomposed over successive years.The Olson exponential decay model was adopted to establish a system of simultaneous equations describing the dynamic balance be-tween litter production and litter decomposition.Multiple linear regression was used to fit and solve the parameters of the equations.After simplification and mathematical derivation,litter production and litter decomposition rates were obtained,based on which a prediction model for litter load was constructed.Field measured data from sample plots were used to veri-fy the accuracy of the model.Taking Betula platyphylla,a widely distributed deciduous broad-leaved tree species in the Greater Khingan forest region of Heilongjiang Province,as the research object,the established model was applied to pre-dict and analyze the litter load of sample plots.The model verification results showed that the relative error of predicted lit-ter load in birch sample plots in the next two years ranges from 0.01 to 0.17,with an average relative error of 0.10,indi-cating favorable predictive accuracy of the model.This model can reveal the interaction mechanism among litter produc-tion,litter decomposition rate and litter load,characterize the residual accumulation process of litter,and effectively pre-dict the dynamic variation trend of forest litter load.