应用最大熵模型预测不同气候情景下绿竹的潜在适生区OA

To address the impacts of climate change on Bambusa oldhamii resources and clarify the dynamics of its suitable habi-tats,the MaxEnt model was applied to predict the potential suitable habitats of B.oldhamii under current and future(2041-2060,2061-2080)climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585),based on 71 occurrence records and 28 en-vironmental variables including bioclimatic,soil,radiation and elevation factors.The results showed that:(1)The model achieved high prediction accuracy with an AUC value of 0.967.(2)At present,suitable habitats are mainly distributed in subtropical and warm-temperate regions of South China,East China and Southwest China.(3)Under future scenarios,the suitable habitat area showed an initial increase followed by a decrease under SSP126 and SSP245,with a northward expan-sion followed by a southward contraction,while a significant decreasing trend was observed under SSP585.(4)Precipita-tion of the coldest quarter,elevation,mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest quarter were the key factors affecting the distribution of B.oldhamii.Among them,precipitation of the coldest quarter contributed the most(71.5%),and elevation had the highest permutation importance(37.8%).