1991-2021年中国与不同社会人口学指数地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测OA
Disease burden and risk factors for otitis media in children under 5 years of age in China and other sociodemographic index regions(1991 to 2021)and predictions
目的 比较和分析1991-2021年中国与不同社会人口学指数(socio-demographic index,SDI)地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎疾病负担和危险因素的变化趋势,为儿童中耳炎防治和制定干预策略提供科学依据.方法 利用2021年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)数据,选取中国与不同SDI地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎患病率、伤残损失寿命年(years lived with disability,YLD)率、早死损失寿命年(years of life lost,YLL)率和伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY)率等指标,利用Joinpoint模型计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage changes,AAPC),对中耳炎疾病负担进行描述,并采用自回归积分移动平均模型对中国与不同SDI地区未来15年中耳炎患病率和DALY率进行了预测分析.结果 1991-2021年,中国5岁以下儿童中耳炎的YLL率和DALY率均呈显著下降趋势,分别下降了99.110%和2.422%.2021年,中国5岁以下儿童中耳炎患病率、YLD率、YLL率和DALY率分别为2337.439/10万、41.566/10万、0.005/10万和41.571/10万,男童患病率、YLD率和DALY率分别为2348.585/10万、42.527/10万和42.529/10万,高于女童的2324.563/10万、40.455/10万和40.464/10万.不同SDI地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎的DALY率均呈显著下降趋势,但低SDI地区和中低SDI地区中耳炎疾病负担始终高于中国与其他SDI地区.二手烟暴露、颗粒物污染、低出生体质量和妊娠期短为中国和不同SDI地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎主要危险因素,其中二手烟暴露始终是首要危险因素.未来15年,中国、中SDI地区和中高SDI地区中耳炎的DALY率呈逐年上升趋势,低SDI地区、中低SDI地区和高SDI地区呈逐年下降趋势.结论 与1991年相比,2021年中国与不同SDI地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎疾病负担均呈下降趋势,男童疾病负担高于女童,较低SDI地区疾病负担最为显著,应采取针对性措施进行预防和管理.
Objective To compare and analyze the trend of otitis media(OM)disease burden and risk factors in children under 5 years of age in China and in other regions with different sociodemographic indices from 1991 to 2021,to lay a science based foundation for prevention and management of OM in children as well as formulation of targeted intervention strategies.Methods Joinpoint regression modeling was applied to 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)data,including prevalence,years lived with disability(YLD),years of life lost(YLL),disability-adjusted life years(DALY),and their average annual percentage changes(AAPC),to obtain the disease burden of OM.Additionally,the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was employed to predict the prevalence and DALY of OM in China and other regions with different sociodemographic indices in the next 15 years.Results From 1991 to 2021,OM related YLL and DALY in Chinese children under 5 years of age showed a significant trend of decrease(by 99.110%and 2.422%,respectively).In 2021,the prevalence,YLD,YLL and DALY of OM in children under 5 years of age in China were 2337.439/100 000,41.566/100 000,0.005/100 000 and 41.571/100 000,respectively,with higher prevalence,YLD and DALY in boys(2348.585/100 000,425.727/100 000 and 42.529/100 000)than in girls((2324.563/100 000,440.455/100 000 and 404.640/100 000).The DALY of OM in children under 5 years of age in other SDI regions also showed a significant trend of decrease,although the burden of disease in low SDI and low-middle SDI regions was always significantly higher than in China and other SDI regions.Secondhand smoking exposure,particulate matter pollution,low birth weight and short gestation were the main risk factors for OM in this pediatric population in China and other SDI regions,with secondhand smoking exposure always being the primary risk factor.Over the next 15 years,the DALY of OM in China and middle-SDI and high-middle-SDI regions will show an upward trend,but a downward trend in low-SDI,low-middle-SDI and high-SDI regions.Conclusions Compared to 1991,the disease burden of OM for children under 5 years of age in 2021 showed a decreasing trend in China and other SDI regions,and higher in boys than in girls,with the highest disease burden in lower SDI regions.Targeted measures should be taken for prevention and management.
杜媛泽;王春平;王金凤;张佳琪;张小芳;李月圆;成方宇;张信宇;杨鑫;王宗帅
山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院,山东 潍坊 261053山东大学第二医院儿童医学中心儿内二科,济南 250033
中耳炎社会人口学指数疾病负担危险因素变化趋势
otitis mediasocio-demographic indexburden of diseaserisk factorstrend
《中华耳科学杂志》 2026 (9)
833-839,7
山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2022MG032)潍坊市科技发展计划项目(2024JZ0011)
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