国家森林城市创建对城市韧性提升的影响机制OACHSSCD
Promotion effect of National Forest City construction on urban resilience
国家森林城市创建是中国推进生态文明建设、实现人与自然和谐共生的核心举措,精准评估其对城市韧性的提升效应,可为城市可持续发展提供科学支撑.以 2000-2023 年中国 287 个地级市为样本,将截至 2024 年获批"国家森林城市"的城市设为实验组,未获批城市设为对照组,采用多期双重差分模型,系统探究该政策对城市韧性的影响、作用机制、异质性特征及多政策协同效应.结果表明,国家森林城市创建显著提升城市韧性,实验组较对照组平均提升 0.48%;经平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、倾向得分匹配等一系列稳健性检验,结论依然可靠.政策可通过提升绿色技术创新水平、增强人力资本积累、提高政府绿色低碳关注度,间接赋能城市韧性提升.异质性特征层面上,东部、中部地区政策效应分别为 0.47%、0.46%,显著优于西部地区;老工业基地城市、资源型城市韧性提升幅度分别达 0.57%、0.37%,远离中心城市、靠近港口城市的提升幅度为 0.58%、0.44%,均表现出更为突出的政策效果.多政策协同分析显示,该政策与"中国制造 2025"、智能建造城市、"宽带中国"战略试点协同实施时,韧性提升效应显著优于单一政策.未来应强化政策顶层设计与长效机制建设,针对不同区域、类型城市实施差异化策略,推动城市生态联动与多政策统筹协调,以最大化政策韧性赋能效能,为"双碳"目标下城市可持续发展提供实践指引.
The creation of national forest cities is the core measure of China to promote the construction of ecological civilization and realize the harmonious coexistence of man and nature.This study took 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2023 as samples,and set the cities approved as"national forest cities"as the experimental group and the unapproved cities as the control group.The results showed that the creation of national forest cities significantly improved urban resilience,and the experimental group increased by 0.48%on average compared with the control group.After a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test,placebo test,and propensity score matching,the conclusions were still reliable.Policies can indirectly empower urban resilience by improving the level of green technology innovation,enhancing human capital accumulation,and increasing the government's green and low-carbon attention.At the level of heterogeneity characteristics,the policy effects in the eastern and central regions were 0.47%and 0.46%,respectively,which were significantly better than those in the western region.The resilience of old industrial base cities and resource-based cities increased by 0.57%and 0.37%respectively,and the improvement rates of cities far from the central city and near port cities were 0.58%and 0.44%,both showing more prominent policy effects.Multi-policy collaborative analysis showed that when the policy was implemented in conjunction with the"Made in China 2025",intelligent construction cities,and"broadband China"strategic pilots,the resilience improvement effect was significantly better than that of a single policy.In the future,we should strengthen the top-level design of policies and the construction of long-term mechanisms,implement differentiated strategies for different regions and types of cities,promote urban ecological linkage and multi-policy coordination,maximize policy resilience and empowerment efficiency,and provide practical guidance for sustainable urban development under the"dual carbon"goal.
徐彩瑶;梁笑嫣;王朝勇;廖文梅;孔凡斌
浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,"千万工程"研究院,经济管理学院,杭州 311300浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,"千万工程"研究院,经济管理学院,杭州 311300浙江农林大学浙江省乡村振兴研究院,"千万工程"研究院,经济管理学院,杭州 311300江西农业大学经济管理学院,"三农"问题研究中心,南昌 330045南京林业大学数字林业与绿色发展研究院,经济管理学院,南京 210037
国家森林城市城市韧性提升准自然实验多期双重差分模型政策叠加效应
National Forest Cityurban resilience improvementquasi-natural experimentmulti-period difference-in-differences modelpolicy superposition effect
《生态学报》 2026 (16)
8559-8575,17
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(26NDJC107YB)
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